The graph was showing up fine before, but seems to be missing now. Perhaps it will come back. The equation is simply an eyeballed curve fit to Kurzweil’s own curve. I tried pretty hard to convey that the 1000x number is approximate: > Using the super-exponential extrapolation projects something closer to 1000ximprovement in price-performance. Take these numbers as rough, since the extrapolations depend very much on the minutiae of how you do your curve fit. Regardless of the details, it is a difference of orders of magnitude.
The justification for putting the 1000x number in the post instead of precisely calculating a number from the curve fit is that the actual trend is pretty wobbly over the years, and my aim here is not to pretend at precision. If you just look at the plot, it looks like we should expect “about 3 orders of magnitude” which really is the limit of the precision level that I would be comfortable with stating. I would guess not lower than two orders of magnitude. Certainly not as low as one order of magnitude, as would be implied by the exponential extrapolation, and would require that we don’t have any breakthroughs or new paradigms at all.
I just fixed it. Looks like it was a linked image to some image host that noped out when the image got more traffic. I moved it to the LessWrong image servers. (To avoid this happening in the future, download the image, then upload it to our editor. Copy-pasting text that includes images creates image blocks that are remotely hosted).
I’m extremely confused how extrapolating out the curve can possibly get you 1000x improvement in FLOP/$ within 7 years.
What happens if you backtest this autoregressive model?
Can you show the plot for this fit? (I can’t seem to see the image in this post, maybe that contains the fit?)
Lesswrong seems to be having some image troubles, but the image is clear on the GreaterWrong mirror
The graph was showing up fine before, but seems to be missing now. Perhaps it will come back. The equation is simply an eyeballed curve fit to Kurzweil’s own curve. I tried pretty hard to convey that the 1000x number is approximate:
> Using the super-exponential extrapolation projects something closer to 1000x improvement in price-performance. Take these numbers as rough, since the extrapolations depend very much on the minutiae of how you do your curve fit. Regardless of the details, it is a difference of orders of magnitude.
The justification for putting the 1000x number in the post instead of precisely calculating a number from the curve fit is that the actual trend is pretty wobbly over the years, and my aim here is not to pretend at precision. If you just look at the plot, it looks like we should expect “about 3 orders of magnitude” which really is the limit of the precision level that I would be comfortable with stating. I would guess not lower than two orders of magnitude. Certainly not as low as one order of magnitude, as would be implied by the exponential extrapolation, and would require that we don’t have any breakthroughs or new paradigms at all.
I just fixed it. Looks like it was a linked image to some image host that noped out when the image got more traffic. I moved it to the LessWrong image servers. (To avoid this happening in the future, download the image, then upload it to our editor. Copy-pasting text that includes images creates image blocks that are remotely hosted).
Thanks, I’ll keep that in mind!