Were you always a thirder? Or is this two coin version of Sleeping Beauty what changed your mind to become one? Would you change your mind if the two coin case was found to be flawed?
I skipped answering the initial question because I’ve always been a thirder. I’m just trying to comment on the reasons people have given. Mostly how many will try to use fuzzy logic—like “isn’t the question just asking about the coin flip?” in order to make the answer that they find intuitive sound more reasonable. I find that people will tend to either not change their answer because they don’t want to back down from their intuition, or oscillate back and forth, without recalling why they picked an answer a few weeks later. Many of those will end up with “it depends on what you think the question is.”
So, could you answer the initial question?
Were you always a thirder? Or is this two coin version of Sleeping Beauty what changed your mind to become one? Would you change your mind if the two coin case was found to be flawed?
I skipped answering the initial question because I’ve always been a thirder. I’m just trying to comment on the reasons people have given. Mostly how many will try to use fuzzy logic—like “isn’t the question just asking about the coin flip?” in order to make the answer that they find intuitive sound more reasonable. I find that people will tend to either not change their answer because they don’t want to back down from their intuition, or oscillate back and forth, without recalling why they picked an answer a few weeks later. Many of those will end up with “it depends on what you think the question is.”