2) a) probability mass distribution over time and some other value
I would like to easily be able to predict on a question such as “What will be the price of neuropreservation at Alcor in 2030?” but for many years at the same time.
I was thinking what would be a good way to do that, and here’s a thought.
Instead of plotting probability mass over price for a specific year, we could plot price over years for a specific probability.
So to take the same example, the question could become: “For what price is it 50% sure that Alcor will charge more than it over the coming century?” You could repeat the same question for the 10% and 90% mark.
Or you could just a specific distribution, like a normal distribution. And then you have just 2 curves to make:
What’s the mean of Alcor’s expected prices over the coming century?
What’s the standard deviation of Alcor’s expected prices over the coming century?
That way, you can easily get a probability mass distribution over price, over time.
updated: 2020-11-07
0) basic features
a) username, login
b) probably other basic things I take for granted
1) oriented towards long content
a) exportable, ideally in an open source format (ideally not just your predictions, but everyone’s predictions)
b) archivable, notably on the Wayback Machine
c) organizational infrastructure and commitment to keep the prediction platform up for the very long term
d) notifications for when a prediction is due (if I’m the one that has to resolve it) or notification for when a prediction is resolved
2) able to input predictions in various formats
a) notably distribution over time
3) able to share a page summarizing my predictions, ideally with the option to have a comment on each
a) categorizing predictions
4) community features
a) moderators reviewing public questions
b) able to predict on all public questions
c) have a point system that allows never closing questions (unlike Metaculus)
d) able to comment on predictions, reply to comments, tag users, and adjust notifications
5) advanced predictions
a) able to use the output of some predictions as input for other predictions; maybe in a way similar to Guesstimate
b) able to use others (specific or aggregated) predictions as part of a function for your own prediction
2) a) probability mass distribution over time and some other value
I would like to easily be able to predict on a question such as “What will be the price of neuropreservation at Alcor in 2030?” but for many years at the same time.
I was thinking what would be a good way to do that, and here’s a thought.
Instead of plotting probability mass over price for a specific year, we could plot price over years for a specific probability.
So to take the same example, the question could become: “For what price is it 50% sure that Alcor will charge more than it over the coming century?” You could repeat the same question for the 10% and 90% mark.
Or you could just a specific distribution, like a normal distribution. And then you have just 2 curves to make:
What’s the mean of Alcor’s expected prices over the coming century?
What’s the standard deviation of Alcor’s expected prices over the coming century?
That way, you can easily get a probability mass distribution over price, over time.
x-post: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/935/discussion-topic-what-features-should-metaculus-add/#comment-44545