2) a) probability mass distribution over time and some other value
I would like to easily be able to predict on a question such as “What will be the price of neuropreservation at Alcor in 2030?” but for many years at the same time.
I was thinking what would be a good way to do that, and here’s a thought.
Instead of plotting probability mass over price for a specific year, we could plot price over years for a specific probability.
So to take the same example, the question could become: “For what price is it 50% sure that Alcor will charge more than it over the coming century?” You could repeat the same question for the 10% and 90% mark.
Or you could just a specific distribution, like a normal distribution. And then you have just 2 curves to make:
What’s the mean of Alcor’s expected prices over the coming century?
What’s the standard deviation of Alcor’s expected prices over the coming century?
That way, you can easily get a probability mass distribution over price, over time.
2) a) probability mass distribution over time and some other value
I would like to easily be able to predict on a question such as “What will be the price of neuropreservation at Alcor in 2030?” but for many years at the same time.
I was thinking what would be a good way to do that, and here’s a thought.
Instead of plotting probability mass over price for a specific year, we could plot price over years for a specific probability.
So to take the same example, the question could become: “For what price is it 50% sure that Alcor will charge more than it over the coming century?” You could repeat the same question for the 10% and 90% mark.
Or you could just a specific distribution, like a normal distribution. And then you have just 2 curves to make:
What’s the mean of Alcor’s expected prices over the coming century?
What’s the standard deviation of Alcor’s expected prices over the coming century?
That way, you can easily get a probability mass distribution over price, over time.
x-post: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/935/discussion-topic-what-features-should-metaculus-add/#comment-44545