Since increased availability would presumably be causally linked to increased production,
Given how easy it is to make copies in this day and age, I don’t think that’s a necessary link—but you’re probably right. My assumption in any case is that a given child porn image is consumed thousands of times, so the effect on the consumer end would dwarf the effect on the producer end.
Also, when you say that child porn with real children should be illegal, do you mean that just production should be illegal or that possession should be illegal as well?
The production should be illegal. From descriptions I’ve read, I think that much of it is disgusting and I would urge people not to possess it or look at it. But there are many things that I don’t like that I don’t think should have criminal penalties attached, and child porn possession is one of those things.
The attributes of the person making an argument are often valuable evidence regarding the validity of the argument, especially in an area where one is not an expert.
You are right. I was mistaken about this. I guess rationality doesn’t generally call for eliminating any source of information, though it may suggest downgrading some.
Consider participating in other discussions on this site as well, so that people don’t get the impression that you’re on here just to push this, shall we say “provocative” agenda.
Of course, if I want to have my comments taken seriously on other topics, it helps not to be linked to a low-status identity. Would you be any more comfortable thinking that I as a person participate more broadly under another identity? I’m not saying whether I do or not, but I’m asking.
advocacy for consumers of child porn (which I do consider objectionable).
To clarify, I am opposed to its production, which I think should remain illegal. I am opposed to criminal sanctions for the possession of child pornography. I suspect I would find much of it (both real and virtual) disgusting and revolting. It is advocacy for the consumers to the extent of not wanting them to face years in prison. It is definitely not approval for disgusting material.
But there are many things that I don’t like that I don’t think should have criminal penalties attached, and child porn possession is one of those things.
Legalizing possession would create huge demand for commercial child porn.
First, if this were true, I would rethink my position—I agree it is a worrisome consideration..
I am not at all sure it is true. The ‘ordinary’ porn market is not so profitable any more because there is so much amateur material available for free. Virtual child porn might well crowd out a market for real porn. It should still be possible to follow the money to the producers. One could consider making the purchase of such material illegal but not its possession. Or one could change the penalties to a fine instead of prolonged imprisonment. One could also try various of these things in pilot experiments and see what happens.
All that said, in this one case we go to extraordinary lengths to suppress a market for something. For comparison, suppose someone stages a murder of a half dozen people. No one disputes it is a horrible crime. But to my knowledge, making a video of it which a person uploads or sells is not an additional crime, and possession is not a crime. Consider real, existing video of hostages being executed. People watching them creates the demand for their creation, but we don’t even think about banning possession of such things.
The ‘ordinary’ porn market is not so profitable any more because there is so much amateur material available for free.
Amateur or professional, the demand is there. The payment might not be money, but other goods like reputation or porn. What’s the difference?
Virtual child porn might well crowd out a market for real porn.
This speculation seems unfounded, considering this has not happened in adult porn.
It should still be possible to follow the money to the producers. One could consider making the purchase of such material illegal but not its possession.
No. Cryptography and covering your tracks by using anonymization services is trivial.
But to my knowledge, making a video of it which a person uploads or sells is not an additional crime, and possession is not a crime. Consider real, existing video of hostages being executed. People watching them creates the demand for their creation, but we don’t even think about banning possession of such things.
I don’t think legalizing one harmful thing because other harmful things are legal is a good argument.
I think if you have a good reason to suspect you’re under active surveillance (by the NSA?), you’ve already failed.
Establishing perfect protection is impossible, but getting very good protection is trivial and accomplished by using simple to use software. That is, if you know what you’re doing. I admit that is a very special kind of trivial.
Virtual child porn might well crowd out a market for real porn.
This speculation seems unfounded, considering this has not happened in adult porn.
The production of real adult porn is as legal as virtual adult porn. Since the production of real child porn would remain illegal, one might expect a difference.
It should still be possible to follow the money to the producers. One could consider making the purchase of such material illegal but not its possession.
No. Cryptography and covering your tracks by using anonymization services is trivial.
These methods are available in today’s environment too where child porn possession is illegal. There are still a lot of convictions. If we divide the world into “those who can use tracks-covering services reliably” and “those who can’t”, we could argue that the first group is already consuming its fill of child porn and the second group would be as uncertain in covering financial dealings as they are in covering downloads today.
But to my knowledge, making a video of it which a person uploads or sells is not an additional crime, and possession is not a crime. Consider real, existing video of hostages being executed. People watching them creates the demand for their creation, but we don’t even think about banning possession of such things.
I don’t think legalizing one harmful thing because other harmful things are legal is a good argument.
That’s fair enough, but we can also consult our intuitions about how we’d like to handle that case. Would you with enthusiasm support efforts to make possession of such videos illegal? My reaction is, “Let’s not go there, and just let people possess those videos.”
Sometimes a sample is also a population. We might not be able to generalize to all nations, but knowing the effect on the US would be very interesting in and of itself.
Other times it seems reasonable to draw conclusions without a sample, if we expect little variability in the population on the measure in question. For instance, if Obamacare has been in effect in Massachusetts for a few years, you don’t say “n=1” and that the results have no bearing on what will happen in other states. You might argue that there are reasons it won’t apply due to differing conditions, but few would say that it is as irrelevant as “n=1″ would imply.
My assumption in any case is that a given child porn image is consumed thousands of times, so the effect on the consumer end would dwarf the effect on the producer end.
That assumes there is a non-negligible inhibiting effect on the consumer end. I don’t think this has been established. I realize you think the Diamond research is good evidence for this, but I’m not so sure. I admit I haven’t perused that research in any detail, but as far as I can tell, their claims are based on very basic correlations between time series. Moreover, in each case the time series in question change monotonically in the same direction (greater availability of child porn as time goes on, and fewer cases of child sex abuse as time goes on). So it’s not even like there are ups and downs in the two time series that track each other. The researchers also don’t offer examples of countries with the opposing trends (less access to child pornography coupled with increased child sex abuse), or even offer control data from countries with no change in child porn availability. Drawing straightforward causal conclusions from this research is questionable.
Would you be any more comfortable thinking that I as a person participate more broadly under another identity? I’m not saying whether I do or not, but I’m asking.
I would be more comfortable if I had reason to believe this. I don’t like the idea of this forum becoming a haven for well-spoken advocates of taboo causes (in fact I’m unhappy with the extent to which it already is something of this sort), especially taboo causes I think are taboo for good reason. If there were evidence that you were participating in the forum out of a general interest in rationality rather than just because you think rationalists would be a receptive audience for your cause, I’d be less perturbed by your posts.
To clarify, I am opposed to its production, which I think should remain illegal. I am opposed to criminal sanctions for the possession of child pornography. I suspect I would find much of it (both real and virtual) disgusting and revolting. It is advocacy for the consumers to the extent of not wanting them to face years in prison. It is definitely not approval for disgusting material.
To what extent does your belief that consumption of child porn should be decriminalized hinge on the assumption that decriminalizing consumption will not lead to an increase in production? Is there, to your mind, some level of increased production given which it would be OK to criminalize consumption, or do you maybe believe that no realistic amount of increase in production could justify imprisoning people only for looking at pictures? And can you give an estimate of the probability you assign to the proposition that production will increase if consumption is decriminalized?
I don’t like the idea of this forum becoming a haven for well-spoken advocates of taboo causes (in fact I’m unhappy with the extent to which it already is something of this sort), especially taboo causes I think are taboo for good reason.
Are these reasons because of the damage to reputation caused by the reaction of others, or do you see good reasons for the taboo that are more inherent to the subject itself?
If there were evidence that you were participating in the forum out of a general interest in rationality rather than just because you think rationalists would be a receptive audience for your cause, I’d be less perturbed by your posts.
I participated in the past. I was very excited by the basic concepts. I believe I read or at least skimmed all the major sequences. When it came to the details, I began to have a lot more questions. The interest in the AI singularity and cryonic preservation seemed like topics that were discussed a lot because of the interest people had in them, and did not in any sense proceed out of rationality considerations themselves. They didn’t interest me personally. There was also a tendency for conversations to focus on the concerns of teens and 20-somethings.
I was in part hoping that the insights of people here could help me refine my own thinking, and to a small extent this has happened. Although I do not think as clearly as I would like (and there are probably limitations in my thinking others can see and I cannot), I hope my posts give evidence of an attempt to follow the LessWrong approach that goes beyond merely being well-spoken.
Is there, to your mind, some level of increased production given which it would be OK to criminalize consumption, or do you maybe believe that no realistic amount of increase in production could justify imprisoning people only for looking at pictures?
And can you give an estimate of the probability you assign to the proposition that production will increase if consumption is decriminalized?
Presumably what we want is instead a series of probabilities covering different values of how much the production would increase. I would estimate the probability of it doubling as 0.1 or less. There are, as I said, a number of parameters that could be adjusted. It is an experiment one could try and then reverse if parameters could not be found that yielded acceptable results.
Reasons for thinking the probability would be low is that the production is global, and criminal penalties are adjusted on a national basis. Another is that possession is already widespread due to a perception that anonymization protects people from detection.
Other reputable organizations like the ACLU also support decriminalization without thinking about issues of increased demand. Perhaps I am letting conventional wisdom influence me too much in wavering from that view.
Other reputable organizations like the ACLU also support decriminalization without thinking about issues of increased demand.
The sounds like you want to think about the issue of increased demand because you already made up your mind about the issue.
I think the ACLU positions is that even if there is increased demand and thus more production the harm that it causes doesn’t outweight the good of legalisation. Arguing such a position however needs analysis of the good that you create.
Other reputable organizations like the ACLU also support decriminalization without thinking about issues of increased demand.
The sounds like you want to think about the issue of increased demand because you already made up your mind about the issue.
I have no idea how your comment relates to anything I said.
I think the ACLU positions is that even if there is increased demand and thus more production the harm that it causes doesn’t outweigh the good of legalisation. Arguing such a position however needs analysis of the good that you create.
I think that’s a fair summary of their position. I (and I think they) would defend the good of legalization as keeping the government from looking through people’s private computer files and sending them to prison for years based on what’s there. Another is avoiding the anxiety a lot of people feel constantly wondering if some download they made might have a bad image in it that they’re not aware of, or there’s something in the background of a shot they didn’t notice, etc.
In contrast, the good of reducing demand is a long, tenuous, and indirect chain.
Given how easy it is to make copies in this day and age, I don’t think that’s a necessary link—but you’re probably right. My assumption in any case is that a given child porn image is consumed thousands of times, so the effect on the consumer end would dwarf the effect on the producer end.
This argument is easy to turn on its head (just goes to show how easy these kinds of arguments are to make). If copying cp is easy, the same item is more difficult to sell multiple times. This creates an incentive to produce more material, because nobody is going to buy material that is easy to copy for free. Old material is more available for copying than new material. As was already argued, producing cp creates more abuse. In any case, there’s always going to be demand for novelty.
Through all of this, the profit margins are going ever downward. Producers want a good expected payoff to cover the risks of detection and criminal prosecution. Market forces should depress production for profit.
Some kind of an economic equilibrium between production and copying would develop. You could look into examples of other pirated media to get an idea how it would settle.
Given how easy it is to make copies in this day and age, I don’t think that’s a necessary link—but you’re probably right. My assumption in any case is that a given child porn image is consumed thousands of times, so the effect on the consumer end would dwarf the effect on the producer end.
The production should be illegal. From descriptions I’ve read, I think that much of it is disgusting and I would urge people not to possess it or look at it. But there are many things that I don’t like that I don’t think should have criminal penalties attached, and child porn possession is one of those things.
You are right. I was mistaken about this. I guess rationality doesn’t generally call for eliminating any source of information, though it may suggest downgrading some.
Of course, if I want to have my comments taken seriously on other topics, it helps not to be linked to a low-status identity. Would you be any more comfortable thinking that I as a person participate more broadly under another identity? I’m not saying whether I do or not, but I’m asking.
To clarify, I am opposed to its production, which I think should remain illegal. I am opposed to criminal sanctions for the possession of child pornography. I suspect I would find much of it (both real and virtual) disgusting and revolting. It is advocacy for the consumers to the extent of not wanting them to face years in prison. It is definitely not approval for disgusting material.
Legalizing possession would create huge demand for commercial child porn.
First, if this were true, I would rethink my position—I agree it is a worrisome consideration..
I am not at all sure it is true. The ‘ordinary’ porn market is not so profitable any more because there is so much amateur material available for free. Virtual child porn might well crowd out a market for real porn. It should still be possible to follow the money to the producers. One could consider making the purchase of such material illegal but not its possession. Or one could change the penalties to a fine instead of prolonged imprisonment. One could also try various of these things in pilot experiments and see what happens.
All that said, in this one case we go to extraordinary lengths to suppress a market for something. For comparison, suppose someone stages a murder of a half dozen people. No one disputes it is a horrible crime. But to my knowledge, making a video of it which a person uploads or sells is not an additional crime, and possession is not a crime. Consider real, existing video of hostages being executed. People watching them creates the demand for their creation, but we don’t even think about banning possession of such things.
Amateur or professional, the demand is there. The payment might not be money, but other goods like reputation or porn. What’s the difference?
This speculation seems unfounded, considering this has not happened in adult porn.
No. Cryptography and covering your tracks by using anonymization services is trivial.
I don’t think legalizing one harmful thing because other harmful things are legal is a good argument.
It is many things, but trivial is definitely not one of them.
As a related example, consider Bruce Schneier’s opinion that it is non-trivial to maintain as simple a thing as an air gap.
I think if you have a good reason to suspect you’re under active surveillance (by the NSA?), you’ve already failed.
Establishing perfect protection is impossible, but getting very good protection is trivial and accomplished by using simple to use software. That is, if you know what you’re doing. I admit that is a very special kind of trivial.
I’m a little amazed that you’re managing to lose this argument, Hypor.
The production of real adult porn is as legal as virtual adult porn. Since the production of real child porn would remain illegal, one might expect a difference.
These methods are available in today’s environment too where child porn possession is illegal. There are still a lot of convictions. If we divide the world into “those who can use tracks-covering services reliably” and “those who can’t”, we could argue that the first group is already consuming its fill of child porn and the second group would be as uncertain in covering financial dealings as they are in covering downloads today.
That’s fair enough, but we can also consult our intuitions about how we’d like to handle that case. Would you with enthusiasm support efforts to make possession of such videos illegal? My reaction is, “Let’s not go there, and just let people possess those videos.”
No, making localised experiment about such a topic is hard. You can’t effectively run localised experiments on the internet.
You can run an experiment in a single large nation, such as the US. Policies are set at the national level in any case.
That’s n=1. You won’t learn from a n=1 experiment about the exact effects of the policy.
Sometimes a sample is also a population. We might not be able to generalize to all nations, but knowing the effect on the US would be very interesting in and of itself.
Other times it seems reasonable to draw conclusions without a sample, if we expect little variability in the population on the measure in question. For instance, if Obamacare has been in effect in Massachusetts for a few years, you don’t say “n=1” and that the results have no bearing on what will happen in other states. You might argue that there are reasons it won’t apply due to differing conditions, but few would say that it is as irrelevant as “n=1″ would imply.
That assumes there is a non-negligible inhibiting effect on the consumer end. I don’t think this has been established. I realize you think the Diamond research is good evidence for this, but I’m not so sure. I admit I haven’t perused that research in any detail, but as far as I can tell, their claims are based on very basic correlations between time series. Moreover, in each case the time series in question change monotonically in the same direction (greater availability of child porn as time goes on, and fewer cases of child sex abuse as time goes on). So it’s not even like there are ups and downs in the two time series that track each other. The researchers also don’t offer examples of countries with the opposing trends (less access to child pornography coupled with increased child sex abuse), or even offer control data from countries with no change in child porn availability. Drawing straightforward causal conclusions from this research is questionable.
I would be more comfortable if I had reason to believe this. I don’t like the idea of this forum becoming a haven for well-spoken advocates of taboo causes (in fact I’m unhappy with the extent to which it already is something of this sort), especially taboo causes I think are taboo for good reason. If there were evidence that you were participating in the forum out of a general interest in rationality rather than just because you think rationalists would be a receptive audience for your cause, I’d be less perturbed by your posts.
To what extent does your belief that consumption of child porn should be decriminalized hinge on the assumption that decriminalizing consumption will not lead to an increase in production? Is there, to your mind, some level of increased production given which it would be OK to criminalize consumption, or do you maybe believe that no realistic amount of increase in production could justify imprisoning people only for looking at pictures? And can you give an estimate of the probability you assign to the proposition that production will increase if consumption is decriminalized?
Are these reasons because of the damage to reputation caused by the reaction of others, or do you see good reasons for the taboo that are more inherent to the subject itself?
I participated in the past. I was very excited by the basic concepts. I believe I read or at least skimmed all the major sequences. When it came to the details, I began to have a lot more questions. The interest in the AI singularity and cryonic preservation seemed like topics that were discussed a lot because of the interest people had in them, and did not in any sense proceed out of rationality considerations themselves. They didn’t interest me personally. There was also a tendency for conversations to focus on the concerns of teens and 20-somethings.
I was in part hoping that the insights of people here could help me refine my own thinking, and to a small extent this has happened. Although I do not think as clearly as I would like (and there are probably limitations in my thinking others can see and I cannot), I hope my posts give evidence of an attempt to follow the LessWrong approach that goes beyond merely being well-spoken.
Presumably what we want is instead a series of probabilities covering different values of how much the production would increase. I would estimate the probability of it doubling as 0.1 or less. There are, as I said, a number of parameters that could be adjusted. It is an experiment one could try and then reverse if parameters could not be found that yielded acceptable results.
Reasons for thinking the probability would be low is that the production is global, and criminal penalties are adjusted on a national basis. Another is that possession is already widespread due to a perception that anonymization protects people from detection.
Other reputable organizations like the ACLU also support decriminalization without thinking about issues of increased demand. Perhaps I am letting conventional wisdom influence me too much in wavering from that view.
The sounds like you want to think about the issue of increased demand because you already made up your mind about the issue.
I think the ACLU positions is that even if there is increased demand and thus more production the harm that it causes doesn’t outweight the good of legalisation. Arguing such a position however needs analysis of the good that you create.
I have no idea how your comment relates to anything I said.
I think that’s a fair summary of their position. I (and I think they) would defend the good of legalization as keeping the government from looking through people’s private computer files and sending them to prison for years based on what’s there. Another is avoiding the anxiety a lot of people feel constantly wondering if some download they made might have a bad image in it that they’re not aware of, or there’s something in the background of a shot they didn’t notice, etc.
In contrast, the good of reducing demand is a long, tenuous, and indirect chain.
This argument is easy to turn on its head (just goes to show how easy these kinds of arguments are to make). If copying cp is easy, the same item is more difficult to sell multiple times. This creates an incentive to produce more material, because nobody is going to buy material that is easy to copy for free. Old material is more available for copying than new material. As was already argued, producing cp creates more abuse. In any case, there’s always going to be demand for novelty.
Through all of this, the profit margins are going ever downward. Producers want a good expected payoff to cover the risks of detection and criminal prosecution. Market forces should depress production for profit.
Some kind of an economic equilibrium between production and copying would develop. You could look into examples of other pirated media to get an idea how it would settle.