My assumption in any case is that a given child porn image is consumed thousands of times, so the effect on the consumer end would dwarf the effect on the producer end.
That assumes there is a non-negligible inhibiting effect on the consumer end. I don’t think this has been established. I realize you think the Diamond research is good evidence for this, but I’m not so sure. I admit I haven’t perused that research in any detail, but as far as I can tell, their claims are based on very basic correlations between time series. Moreover, in each case the time series in question change monotonically in the same direction (greater availability of child porn as time goes on, and fewer cases of child sex abuse as time goes on). So it’s not even like there are ups and downs in the two time series that track each other. The researchers also don’t offer examples of countries with the opposing trends (less access to child pornography coupled with increased child sex abuse), or even offer control data from countries with no change in child porn availability. Drawing straightforward causal conclusions from this research is questionable.
Would you be any more comfortable thinking that I as a person participate more broadly under another identity? I’m not saying whether I do or not, but I’m asking.
I would be more comfortable if I had reason to believe this. I don’t like the idea of this forum becoming a haven for well-spoken advocates of taboo causes (in fact I’m unhappy with the extent to which it already is something of this sort), especially taboo causes I think are taboo for good reason. If there were evidence that you were participating in the forum out of a general interest in rationality rather than just because you think rationalists would be a receptive audience for your cause, I’d be less perturbed by your posts.
To clarify, I am opposed to its production, which I think should remain illegal. I am opposed to criminal sanctions for the possession of child pornography. I suspect I would find much of it (both real and virtual) disgusting and revolting. It is advocacy for the consumers to the extent of not wanting them to face years in prison. It is definitely not approval for disgusting material.
To what extent does your belief that consumption of child porn should be decriminalized hinge on the assumption that decriminalizing consumption will not lead to an increase in production? Is there, to your mind, some level of increased production given which it would be OK to criminalize consumption, or do you maybe believe that no realistic amount of increase in production could justify imprisoning people only for looking at pictures? And can you give an estimate of the probability you assign to the proposition that production will increase if consumption is decriminalized?
I don’t like the idea of this forum becoming a haven for well-spoken advocates of taboo causes (in fact I’m unhappy with the extent to which it already is something of this sort), especially taboo causes I think are taboo for good reason.
Are these reasons because of the damage to reputation caused by the reaction of others, or do you see good reasons for the taboo that are more inherent to the subject itself?
If there were evidence that you were participating in the forum out of a general interest in rationality rather than just because you think rationalists would be a receptive audience for your cause, I’d be less perturbed by your posts.
I participated in the past. I was very excited by the basic concepts. I believe I read or at least skimmed all the major sequences. When it came to the details, I began to have a lot more questions. The interest in the AI singularity and cryonic preservation seemed like topics that were discussed a lot because of the interest people had in them, and did not in any sense proceed out of rationality considerations themselves. They didn’t interest me personally. There was also a tendency for conversations to focus on the concerns of teens and 20-somethings.
I was in part hoping that the insights of people here could help me refine my own thinking, and to a small extent this has happened. Although I do not think as clearly as I would like (and there are probably limitations in my thinking others can see and I cannot), I hope my posts give evidence of an attempt to follow the LessWrong approach that goes beyond merely being well-spoken.
Is there, to your mind, some level of increased production given which it would be OK to criminalize consumption, or do you maybe believe that no realistic amount of increase in production could justify imprisoning people only for looking at pictures?
And can you give an estimate of the probability you assign to the proposition that production will increase if consumption is decriminalized?
Presumably what we want is instead a series of probabilities covering different values of how much the production would increase. I would estimate the probability of it doubling as 0.1 or less. There are, as I said, a number of parameters that could be adjusted. It is an experiment one could try and then reverse if parameters could not be found that yielded acceptable results.
Reasons for thinking the probability would be low is that the production is global, and criminal penalties are adjusted on a national basis. Another is that possession is already widespread due to a perception that anonymization protects people from detection.
Other reputable organizations like the ACLU also support decriminalization without thinking about issues of increased demand. Perhaps I am letting conventional wisdom influence me too much in wavering from that view.
Other reputable organizations like the ACLU also support decriminalization without thinking about issues of increased demand.
The sounds like you want to think about the issue of increased demand because you already made up your mind about the issue.
I think the ACLU positions is that even if there is increased demand and thus more production the harm that it causes doesn’t outweight the good of legalisation. Arguing such a position however needs analysis of the good that you create.
Other reputable organizations like the ACLU also support decriminalization without thinking about issues of increased demand.
The sounds like you want to think about the issue of increased demand because you already made up your mind about the issue.
I have no idea how your comment relates to anything I said.
I think the ACLU positions is that even if there is increased demand and thus more production the harm that it causes doesn’t outweigh the good of legalisation. Arguing such a position however needs analysis of the good that you create.
I think that’s a fair summary of their position. I (and I think they) would defend the good of legalization as keeping the government from looking through people’s private computer files and sending them to prison for years based on what’s there. Another is avoiding the anxiety a lot of people feel constantly wondering if some download they made might have a bad image in it that they’re not aware of, or there’s something in the background of a shot they didn’t notice, etc.
In contrast, the good of reducing demand is a long, tenuous, and indirect chain.
That assumes there is a non-negligible inhibiting effect on the consumer end. I don’t think this has been established. I realize you think the Diamond research is good evidence for this, but I’m not so sure. I admit I haven’t perused that research in any detail, but as far as I can tell, their claims are based on very basic correlations between time series. Moreover, in each case the time series in question change monotonically in the same direction (greater availability of child porn as time goes on, and fewer cases of child sex abuse as time goes on). So it’s not even like there are ups and downs in the two time series that track each other. The researchers also don’t offer examples of countries with the opposing trends (less access to child pornography coupled with increased child sex abuse), or even offer control data from countries with no change in child porn availability. Drawing straightforward causal conclusions from this research is questionable.
I would be more comfortable if I had reason to believe this. I don’t like the idea of this forum becoming a haven for well-spoken advocates of taboo causes (in fact I’m unhappy with the extent to which it already is something of this sort), especially taboo causes I think are taboo for good reason. If there were evidence that you were participating in the forum out of a general interest in rationality rather than just because you think rationalists would be a receptive audience for your cause, I’d be less perturbed by your posts.
To what extent does your belief that consumption of child porn should be decriminalized hinge on the assumption that decriminalizing consumption will not lead to an increase in production? Is there, to your mind, some level of increased production given which it would be OK to criminalize consumption, or do you maybe believe that no realistic amount of increase in production could justify imprisoning people only for looking at pictures? And can you give an estimate of the probability you assign to the proposition that production will increase if consumption is decriminalized?
Are these reasons because of the damage to reputation caused by the reaction of others, or do you see good reasons for the taboo that are more inherent to the subject itself?
I participated in the past. I was very excited by the basic concepts. I believe I read or at least skimmed all the major sequences. When it came to the details, I began to have a lot more questions. The interest in the AI singularity and cryonic preservation seemed like topics that were discussed a lot because of the interest people had in them, and did not in any sense proceed out of rationality considerations themselves. They didn’t interest me personally. There was also a tendency for conversations to focus on the concerns of teens and 20-somethings.
I was in part hoping that the insights of people here could help me refine my own thinking, and to a small extent this has happened. Although I do not think as clearly as I would like (and there are probably limitations in my thinking others can see and I cannot), I hope my posts give evidence of an attempt to follow the LessWrong approach that goes beyond merely being well-spoken.
Presumably what we want is instead a series of probabilities covering different values of how much the production would increase. I would estimate the probability of it doubling as 0.1 or less. There are, as I said, a number of parameters that could be adjusted. It is an experiment one could try and then reverse if parameters could not be found that yielded acceptable results.
Reasons for thinking the probability would be low is that the production is global, and criminal penalties are adjusted on a national basis. Another is that possession is already widespread due to a perception that anonymization protects people from detection.
Other reputable organizations like the ACLU also support decriminalization without thinking about issues of increased demand. Perhaps I am letting conventional wisdom influence me too much in wavering from that view.
The sounds like you want to think about the issue of increased demand because you already made up your mind about the issue.
I think the ACLU positions is that even if there is increased demand and thus more production the harm that it causes doesn’t outweight the good of legalisation. Arguing such a position however needs analysis of the good that you create.
I have no idea how your comment relates to anything I said.
I think that’s a fair summary of their position. I (and I think they) would defend the good of legalization as keeping the government from looking through people’s private computer files and sending them to prison for years based on what’s there. Another is avoiding the anxiety a lot of people feel constantly wondering if some download they made might have a bad image in it that they’re not aware of, or there’s something in the background of a shot they didn’t notice, etc.
In contrast, the good of reducing demand is a long, tenuous, and indirect chain.