General intuition that “butterfly effect” is basically true, meaning that if a change occurs in a chaotic system, then the size of the downstream effects will tend to increase over time.
Edit: I don’t have a good sense of how far back you would have to go to see meaningful change in outcome, just that the farther you go the more likely change becomes.
Sure, but why would those changes tend to favor Trump as you get outside of a small neighborhood? Like, why would Biden / (Biden or Trump win) < .5? I agree it would at least approach .5 as the neighborhood grows. I think.
I think we’re in agreement here. I didn’t mean to imply that Trump would become more likely than Biden in absolute terms, just that the ratio Trump/Biden would increase.
Why do you think that? How do you know that?
General intuition that “butterfly effect” is basically true, meaning that if a change occurs in a chaotic system, then the size of the downstream effects will tend to increase over time.
Edit: I don’t have a good sense of how far back you would have to go to see meaningful change in outcome, just that the farther you go the more likely change becomes.
Sure, but why would those changes tend to favor Trump as you get outside of a small neighborhood? Like, why would Biden / (Biden or Trump win) < .5? I agree it would at least approach .5 as the neighborhood grows. I think.
I think we’re in agreement here. I didn’t mean to imply that Trump would become more likely than Biden in absolute terms, just that the ratio Trump/Biden would increase.