I think this depends on the distance considered. In worlds very very close to ours, the vast majority will have the same outcome as ours. As you increase the neighborhood size (I imagine this as considering worlds which diverged from ours more distantly in the past), Trump becomes more likely relative to Biden [edit: more likely than he is relative to Biden in more nearby worlds]. As you continue to expand, other outcomes start to have significant likelihood as well.
General intuition that “butterfly effect” is basically true, meaning that if a change occurs in a chaotic system, then the size of the downstream effects will tend to increase over time.
Edit: I don’t have a good sense of how far back you would have to go to see meaningful change in outcome, just that the farther you go the more likely change becomes.
Sure, but why would those changes tend to favor Trump as you get outside of a small neighborhood? Like, why would Biden / (Biden or Trump win) < .5? I agree it would at least approach .5 as the neighborhood grows. I think.
I think we’re in agreement here. I didn’t mean to imply that Trump would become more likely than Biden in absolute terms, just that the ratio Trump/Biden would increase.
I think this depends on the distance considered. In worlds very very close to ours, the vast majority will have the same outcome as ours. As you increase the neighborhood size (I imagine this as considering worlds which diverged from ours more distantly in the past), Trump becomes more likely relative to Biden [edit: more likely than he is relative to Biden in more nearby worlds]. As you continue to expand, other outcomes start to have significant likelihood as well.
Why do you think that? How do you know that?
General intuition that “butterfly effect” is basically true, meaning that if a change occurs in a chaotic system, then the size of the downstream effects will tend to increase over time.
Edit: I don’t have a good sense of how far back you would have to go to see meaningful change in outcome, just that the farther you go the more likely change becomes.
Sure, but why would those changes tend to favor Trump as you get outside of a small neighborhood? Like, why would Biden / (Biden or Trump win) < .5? I agree it would at least approach .5 as the neighborhood grows. I think.
I think we’re in agreement here. I didn’t mean to imply that Trump would become more likely than Biden in absolute terms, just that the ratio Trump/Biden would increase.