I still stand by what I said. However, I hope I’m wrong.
(I don’t think adding scaffolding and small amounts of fine-tuning on top of Llama 3.1 will be enough to get to AGI. AGI will be achieved by big corporations spending big compute on big RL runs.)
In particular, imagine as a counterfactual, that the research community discovers how to build AGI with relatively moderate compute starting from Llama 3.1 as a base, and that this discovery happens in public. Would this be a positive development, if we compare it to the default “single winner” path?
Does this assumption still hold, given that we now have a competitive open weights baseline (Llama 3.1) for people to improve upon?
Or do we assume that the leading labs are way ahead internally compared to what they share on their demos and APIs?
I still stand by what I said. However, I hope I’m wrong.
(I don’t think adding scaffolding and small amounts of fine-tuning on top of Llama 3.1 will be enough to get to AGI. AGI will be achieved by big corporations spending big compute on big RL runs.)
Interesting, thanks!
Do you think a multipolar scenario is better?
In particular, imagine as a counterfactual, that the research community discovers how to build AGI with relatively moderate compute starting from Llama 3.1 as a base, and that this discovery happens in public. Would this be a positive development, if we compare it to the default “single winner” path?