This is exactly what I wanted to say. Saying “People are crazy.” is like saying “People are evil.” It is meaningless. To what can we compare human beings? The only examples I can think of are animals and AIs. Since mind-level AIs don’t exist yet, and animals are both stupider and crazier (I think) than humans, I think any just comparison results in humans being relatively sane and smart.
If the first time in your life that you saw a skyscraper it had been all crooked, the concrete had big cracks, and some parts of it were made of wood, you’d probably know something was wrong with it. You can use your foresight and imagination to see how it could be better, even if your lack of points of reference and comparison means that you might not have very specific recommendations on how to improve things.
Huh, I thought there was a fair bit of evidence around showing that people perform basically just as badly on tests which exploit cognitive biases after being told about them as they do in a state of ignorance.
This is exactly what I wanted to say. Saying “People are crazy.” is like saying “People are evil.” It is meaningless. To what can we compare human beings? The only examples I can think of are animals and AIs. Since mind-level AIs don’t exist yet, and animals are both stupider and crazier (I think) than humans, I think any just comparison results in humans being relatively sane and smart.
To self.
To probability theory and decision theory.
I think this makes sense.
If the first time in your life that you saw a skyscraper it had been all crooked, the concrete had big cracks, and some parts of it were made of wood, you’d probably know something was wrong with it. You can use your foresight and imagination to see how it could be better, even if your lack of points of reference and comparison means that you might not have very specific recommendations on how to improve things.
So essentially Eliezer is saying:
“The average sanity of humanity is less than the sanity of at least one of its component organisms.”
“I am less crazy than the average human.”
How is this useful?!?
Most people don’t know they have all these cognitive biases. Telling them that they do is a good first step toward improvement (at least in some).
Huh, I thought there was a fair bit of evidence around showing that people perform basically just as badly on tests which exploit cognitive biases after being told about them as they do in a state of ignorance.
Indeed. That’s why it is just “a first step”. Telling them is not enough, but you’ve got to start there.
It suggests that:
There might be other such people.
You might be one of them...
...or, if not, become one.
Humanity as a whole could do better.
It suggests that humanity can do better.
It suggests that more is possible.
It’s reassuring.