MichaelGR

Karma: 1,878

MichaelGR 16 Apr 2020 19:16 UTC
2 points
in reply to: leggi’s comment on: April Coronavirus Open Thread
Some more on proning in this NYT article:
Some patients, by taking oxygen and rolling onto their sides or on their bellies, have quickly returned to normal levels. The tactic is called proning.
[...]
At Lincoln Hospital in the Bronx, Dr. Nicholas Caputo followed 50 patients who arrived with low oxygen levels between 69 and 85 percent (95 is normal). After five minutes of proning, they had improved to a mean of 94 percent. Over the next 24 hours, nearly three-quarters were able to avoid intubation; 13 needed ventilators. Proning does not seem to work as well in older patients, a number of doctors said.
No one knows yet if this will be a lasting remedy, Dr. Caputo said, but if he could go back to early March, he would advise himself and others: “Don’t jump to intubation.”
[...]
Dr. Josh Farkas, who specializes in pulmonary and critical care medicine at the University of Vermont, said the risks of proning were low. “This is a simple technique which is safe and fairly easy to do,” Dr. Farkas said. “I started doing this some years ago in occasional patients, but never imagined that it would become this widespread and useful.”

MichaelGR 2 Apr 2020 19:53 UTC
2 points
on: April Coronavirus Open Thread
Something to keep an eye out for:
we also predict that the virus may invade multiple brain tissues, which may help explain to the loss of taste and smell in infected individuals. Has anyone seen evidence of further brain damage in COVID-19 patients? Please share if you do!
Also unexpected is the prediction that the virus may be able to invade the reproductive system (vagina, uterus, testis, cervix, ovary). Has anyone seen evidence for this? Please share if you do.
The COVID-19 targets do not show significant overlap with any major disease module (we tested it against 299 diseases in Menche et al.). The closest diseases to the COVID-19 targets are cardiovascular diseases and cancer, in line with the clinical evidence. Interestingly, we once again find disease of the nervous system among the most proximal diseases
Source

NYT: “Some Coronavirus Patients Show Signs of Brain Ailments”

MichaelGR 2 Apr 2020 19:08 UTC
20 points
on: April Coronavirus Open Thread
New post by Tomas Pueyo, the author of ‘Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance’:
‘Coronavirus: Out of Many, One’
Here’s what we’re going to cover today, with a lot of data, charts and sources:
1. What’s the situation in the US and its states
2. Why the coronavirus should be a bipartisan issue
3. The economics of controlling the virus
4. Which decisions should be left to the federal government or to states
Here’s what you’ll take away:
The coronavirus is growing everywhere in the US.
Some states are on their way to controlling it.
Others have massive outbreaks that make China’s outbreak pale in comparison.
Many are unprepared, and will suffer some of the worst outbreaks.
All voters care about this, Democrats and Republicans.
Democrats were hit first.
But Republicans have more to lose.
They’re older and more likely to die.
Most hesitation comes from the perceived cost of suppressing the virus.
Fortunately, it’s cheaper to suppress it than to let it run loose.
We should do it.
But right now, states are left fending for themselves. It’s a mess.
They are competing against each other instead of collaborating.
They might be forced to seal their borders with each other.
There is a role for states and a role for the federal government. The federal government coordinates, the states execute.
If both step up, we will save lives and increase the GDP.

MichaelGR 2 Apr 2020 18:59 UTC
4 points
on: April Coronavirus Open Thread
Video explaining the Czech Republic’s experience of having everyone make home-made masks in about 10 days, from a starting point of almost no masks being worn in public in the country.

Here is their COVID19 infection curves on a log chart (seems to be flattening).

MichaelGR 2 Apr 2020 18:55 UTC
2 points
on: April Coronavirus Open Thread
“The Case for Universal Cloth Mask Adoption & Policies to Increase the Supply of Medical Masks for Health Workers”
Excerpt from Twitter thread summarizing it:
We have very good evidence that universal adoption of cloth masks will combat the spread of the virus. Specifically, we know that 1) asymptomatic people spread the virus, 2) mask wearing by infected people prevents them from transmitting the virus (the report provides citations).
How large are the benefits? Even if masks reduce transmission probabilities by only 10% (and as you’ll see, that is likely very conservative), the value of *each cloth mask* is between $3,000 and $6,000. Our best estimate is that their protective value is closer to 40-50%.
These estimates are of course sensitive to the assumptions made in the underlying epidemiological models. But even if those models overstate mortality risk by a factor of TEN, each cloth mask *conservatively* generates $300 in value!
That policy is getting more medical masks to healthcare workers. The same economic argument that says that masks for the average person are worth thousands of dollars suggests that each N95 respirator for a healthcare worker could be worth *millions* of dollars (report says why).
[...]
This is why we recommend universal adoption of *cloth masks*, at least until there is no (domestic or global) shortage of medical masks for healthcare workers. Homemade cloth masks do not interfere with the production of medical masks.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/6ua7j979dbqb045/masks_final_n_HF_NA.pdf?dl=0

MichaelGR 2 Mar 2020 19:26 UTC
5 points
in reply to: Adam Zerner’s comment on: Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread
It seems to me like this study wasn’t very good and I’ve been more convinced by the rebuttals, such as this one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0u8UdZeOhc

MichaelGR 2 Mar 2020 18:48 UTC
3 points
on: Seeing the Smoke
The tone of this post, including the title, reminds me of an exchange between two characters on the TV show Deadwood (HBO, 2004-2006):
Wild Bill Hickok:
You know the sound of thunder, don’t you, Mrs. Garrett?

Alma Garrett:
Of course.

Wild Bill Hickok:
Can you imagine that sound if I asked you to?

Alma Garrett:
Yes I can, Mr. Hickok.

Wild Bill Hickok:
′ Your husband and me had this talk, and I told him to head home to avoid a dark result. But I didn’t say it in thunder. Ma’am, listen to the thunder.

MichaelGR 9 Aug 2012 20:06 UTC
11 points
on: Rationality Quotes August 2012

The world is full of obvious things which nobody by any chance ever observes…

— Arthur Conan Doyle, “The Hound of the Baskervilles”

MichaelGR 3 May 2012 17:33 UTC
27 points
on: Rationality Quotes May 2012
If you want to build a ship, don’t drum up the men to gather wood, divide the work and give orders. Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea...
- Antoine de Saint Exupery
What links here?
- Vaniver's comment on On what rationality-related topic should I give a school presentation? by bramflakes (7 May 2012 23:07 UTC; 1 point)

MichaelGR 3 May 2012 17:32 UTC
21 points
on: Rationality Quotes May 2012

“Smart people learn from their mistakes. But the real sharp ones learn from the mistakes of others.”

― Brandon Mull, Fablehaven

MichaelGR 3 May 2012 17:31 UTC
16 points
on: Rationality Quotes May 2012
“No matter how busy you may think you are, you must find time for reading, or surrender yourself to self-chosen ignorance.”
- Confucius

MichaelGR 6 Nov 2011 17:23 UTC
10 points
on: Rationality Quotes November 2011

The correctness of a decision can’t be judged from the outcome. Nevertheless, that’s how people assess it. A good decision is one that’s optimal at the time it’s made, when the future is by definition unknown. Thus, correct decisions are often unsuccessful, and vice versa.

--Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing p.136 (about investing, but applies to other things)

MichaelGR 4 Nov 2011 18:56 UTC
12 points
on: Rationality Quotes November 2011

We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know.

John Kenneth Galbraith

MichaelGR 3 Nov 2011 18:23 UTC
3 points
on: Rationality Quotes November 2011

Let us take what the terrain gives.

-Amos Tversky

MichaelGR 22 Oct 2011 5:46 UTC
0 points
in reply to: gwern’s comment on: Rationality Quotes November 2009
I don’t remember exactly, but I think it was from a conference where he was speaking with Eliezer on a panel or Q&A, so that might be it.

MichaelGR 11 Oct 2011 1:25 UTC
6 points
in reply to: wedrifid’s comment on: Rationality Quotes October 2011
My understanding is that the advice is to be aware that you could also end up dead, so you should dig an extra grave for yourself. It’s not practical advice, it’s a warning that revenge is dangerous and not worth it.

MichaelGR 7 Oct 2011 0:19 UTC
0 points
on: Rationality Quotes October 2011

Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves.

-Confucius

MichaelGR 11 Sep 2011 4:37 UTC
6 points
on: Rationality Quotes September 2011

Not only may questions remain unanswered; all the right questions may not even have been asked.

-Seth Klarman, Margin of Safety, p.90

MichaelGR 11 Sep 2011 4:37 UTC
30 points
on: Rationality Quotes September 2011

“When you’re young, you look at television and think, There’s a conspiracy. The networks have conspired to dumb us down. But when you get a little older, you realize that’s not true. The networks are in business to give people exactly what they want. That’s a far more depressing thought. Conspiracy is optimistic! You can shoot the bastards! We can have a revolution! But the networks are really in business to give people what they want. It’s the truth.”

-Steve Jobs, [Wired, February 1996]

MichaelGR 11 Sep 2011 4:36 UTC
4 points
on: Rationality Quotes September 2011

“Using the bible to prove the existence of god is like using The Lord Of The Rings to prove the existence of Hobbits.”

-Anon.