I think it’d probably be better to include closed forecasts as well (maybe decreasing the star rating to indicate it may not be up to date on information), just because a lot of the time Metaculus will close a question long before it actually resolves. For instance, here https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6320/usas-gdpc-growth-in-2020-2029/ the question is closed, but will resolve at the end of 2029.
Closed questions get in metaculus a metaculus prediction which is weighted to give users which good forcasting record higher weight which differs from the unweighted community prediction which gets shown when questions aren’t yet closed.
Thanks! It should just include open questions, not those which have closed and are yet to resolve. But this is easy to change.
I think it’d probably be better to include closed forecasts as well (maybe decreasing the star rating to indicate it may not be up to date on information), just because a lot of the time Metaculus will close a question long before it actually resolves. For instance, here https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6320/usas-gdpc-growth-in-2020-2029/ the question is closed, but will resolve at the end of 2029.
This is changed now. As a bonus, it also resolves a previous bug.
Closed questions get in metaculus a metaculus prediction which is weighted to give users which good forcasting record higher weight which differs from the unweighted community prediction which gets shown when questions aren’t yet closed.
Mmh. OTOH, they loose the ability to incorporate new information. Do you have a sense of which factor dominates?