This is changed now. As a bonus, it also resolves a previous bug.
Closed questions get in metaculus a metaculus prediction which is weighted to give users which good forcasting record higher weight which differs from the unweighted community prediction which gets shown when questions aren’t yet closed.
Mmh. OTOH, they loose the ability to incorporate new information. Do you have a sense of which factor dominates?
This is changed now. As a bonus, it also resolves a previous bug.
Closed questions get in metaculus a metaculus prediction which is weighted to give users which good forcasting record higher weight which differs from the unweighted community prediction which gets shown when questions aren’t yet closed.
Mmh. OTOH, they loose the ability to incorporate new information. Do you have a sense of which factor dominates?