It’s a little hard to know what you mean by that. Do you mean something like: given the information known at the time, but allowing myself the hindsight of noticing facts about that information that I may have missed, what should I have thought the probability was?
If so, I think my answer isn’t too different from what I believed before the election (essentially 50⁄50). Though I welcome takes to the contrary.
Knowing how the election turned out, how likely do you think it was a week before the election that Trump would win?
Do you think Polymarket had Trump-wins priced too high or too low?
It’s a little hard to know what you mean by that. Do you mean something like: given the information known at the time, but allowing myself the hindsight of noticing facts about that information that I may have missed, what should I have thought the probability was?
If so, I think my answer isn’t too different from what I believed before the election (essentially 50⁄50). Though I welcome takes to the contrary.