That’s a different question than the one I meant. Let me clarify:
Basically I was asking you what you think the probability is that Trump would win the election (as of a week before the election, since I think that matters) now that you know how the election turned out.
An analogous question would be the following:
Suppose I have two unfair coins. One coin is biased to land on heads 90% of the time (call it H-coin) and the other is biased to land on tails 90% of the times (T-coin). These two coins look the same to you on the outside. I choose one of the coins, then ask you how likely it is that the coin I chose will land on heads. You don’t know whether the coin I’m holding is H-coin or T-coin, so you answer 50% (50%=0.5*.90=+0.5*0.10). I then flip the coin and it lands on heads. Now I ask you, knowing that the coin landed on heads, now how likely do you think it was that it would land on heads when I first tossed it? (I mean the same question by “Knowing how the election turned out, how likely do you think it was a week before the election that Trump would win?”).
Ah, I think I see. Would it be fair to rephrase your question as: if we “re-rolled the dice” a week before the election, how likely was Trump to win?
My answer is probably between 90% and 95%. Basically the way Trump loses is to lose some of his supporters or have way more late deciders decide on Harris. That probably happens if Trump says something egregiously stupid or offensive (on the level of the Access Hollywood tape), or if some really bad news story about him comes out, but not otherwise.
That’s a different question than the one I meant. Let me clarify:
Basically I was asking you what you think the probability is that Trump would win the election (as of a week before the election, since I think that matters) now that you know how the election turned out.
An analogous question would be the following:
Suppose I have two unfair coins. One coin is biased to land on heads 90% of the time (call it H-coin) and the other is biased to land on tails 90% of the times (T-coin). These two coins look the same to you on the outside. I choose one of the coins, then ask you how likely it is that the coin I chose will land on heads. You don’t know whether the coin I’m holding is H-coin or T-coin, so you answer 50% (50%=0.5*.90=+0.5*0.10). I then flip the coin and it lands on heads. Now I ask you, knowing that the coin landed on heads, now how likely do you think it was that it would land on heads when I first tossed it? (I mean the same question by “Knowing how the election turned out, how likely do you think it was a week before the election that Trump would win?”).
(Spoilers: I’d be interested in knowing your answer to this question before you read my comment on your “The value of a vote in the 2024 presidential election” EA Forum post that you linked to to avoid getting biased by my answer/thoughts.)
Ah, I think I see. Would it be fair to rephrase your question as: if we “re-rolled the dice” a week before the election, how likely was Trump to win?
My answer is probably between 90% and 95%. Basically the way Trump loses is to lose some of his supporters or have way more late deciders decide on Harris. That probably happens if Trump says something egregiously stupid or offensive (on the level of the Access Hollywood tape), or if some really bad news story about him comes out, but not otherwise.