Ah, I think I see. Would it be fair to rephrase your question as: if we “re-rolled the dice” a week before the election, how likely was Trump to win?
Yeah, that seems fair.
My answer is probably between 90% and 95%.
Seems reasonable to me. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was >99%, but I’m not highly confident of that. (I would say I’m ~90% confident that it’s >90%.)
Yeah, that seems fair.
Seems reasonable to me. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was >99%, but I’m not highly confident of that. (I would say I’m ~90% confident that it’s >90%.)