But now you have the new problem that most of the probabilities in the conjunctive market are so close to the risk free interest rate that it’s hard to get signal out of them.
For example, suppose I believed that Mark Kelly would be a terrible pick and cut Harris’s chances in half, and I conclude that therefore his price on the conjunctive market should be 2% rather than 4%. Buying NO shares for 96 cents on a market that lasts for several months is not an attractive proposition when I could be investing mana elsewhere for better returns, so I won’t bother and the market won’t incorporate my opinion.
Also, I believe prices on Manifold can only be whole number percents, which is another obstacle to getting sane conditional probabilities out of conjunctive markets.
I agree, these conditionals are pretty sensitive to small inefficiencies in pricing when the probability is low. It does suck. Perhaps one day we will have markets denominated in appreciating assets, so you can be exposed to general growth while you’re also exposed to your bet on the market.
Also, I believe prices on Manifold can only be whole number percents, which is another obstacle to getting sane conditional probabilities out of conjunctive markets.
Fortunately that’s not true, though it does seem to only display one decimal place below the integer percent.
But now you have the new problem that most of the probabilities in the conjunctive market are so close to the risk free interest rate that it’s hard to get signal out of them.
For example, suppose I believed that Mark Kelly would be a terrible pick and cut Harris’s chances in half, and I conclude that therefore his price on the conjunctive market should be 2% rather than 4%. Buying NO shares for 96 cents on a market that lasts for several months is not an attractive proposition when I could be investing mana elsewhere for better returns, so I won’t bother and the market won’t incorporate my opinion.
Also, I believe prices on Manifold can only be whole number percents, which is another obstacle to getting sane conditional probabilities out of conjunctive markets.
I agree, these conditionals are pretty sensitive to small inefficiencies in pricing when the probability is low. It does suck. Perhaps one day we will have markets denominated in appreciating assets, so you can be exposed to general growth while you’re also exposed to your bet on the market.
Fortunately that’s not true, though it does seem to only display one decimal place below the integer percent.