I agree, these conditionals are pretty sensitive to small inefficiencies in pricing when the probability is low. It does suck. Perhaps one day we will have markets denominated in appreciating assets, so you can be exposed to general growth while you’re also exposed to your bet on the market.
Also, I believe prices on Manifold can only be whole number percents, which is another obstacle to getting sane conditional probabilities out of conjunctive markets.
Fortunately that’s not true, though it does seem to only display one decimal place below the integer percent.
I agree, these conditionals are pretty sensitive to small inefficiencies in pricing when the probability is low. It does suck. Perhaps one day we will have markets denominated in appreciating assets, so you can be exposed to general growth while you’re also exposed to your bet on the market.
Fortunately that’s not true, though it does seem to only display one decimal place below the integer percent.