I think this sequence of posts is underrated/underappreciated. I think this is because (A) it’s super long and dense and (B) mostly a summary/distillation/textbook thingy rather than advancing new claims or arguing for something controversial. As a result of (a) and (b) perhaps it struggles to hold people’s attention all the way through.
But that’s a shame because this sort of project seems pretty useful to me. It seems like the community should be throwing money and interns at you, so that you can build a slick interactive website that displays the full graph (perhaps with expandable/collapsible subsections) and has the relevant paragraphs of text appear when you hover over each node, and that would just be Phase 1, Phase 2 would be adding mathematical relationships to the links and numbers to the nodes, such that people can input their own numbers and the whole system updates itself to spit out answers about nodes at the end. The end result would be like a wiki + textbook only better organized and more fun, while simultaneously being a the most detailed and comprehensive quantitative model of AI stuff ever.
The full graph is in fact expandable / collapsible, and it does have the ability to display the relevant paragraphs when you hover over a node (although the descriptions are not all filled in yet). It also allows people to enter in their own numbers and spit out updated calculations, exactly as you described. We actually built a nice dashboard for that—we haven’t shown it yet in this sequence because this sequence is mostly focused on phase 1 and that’s for phase 2.
Analytica does have a web version, but it’s a bit clunky and buggy so we haven’t used it so far. However, I was just informed that they are coming out with a major update soon that will include a significantly better web version, so hopefully we can do all this then.
I certainly don’t think we’d say no to additional funding or interns! We could certainly use them—there are quite a few areas that we have not looked into sufficiently because all of our team members were focused on other parts of the model. And we haven’t gotten yet to much of the quantitative part (phase 2 as you called it), or the formal elicitation part.
Thank you for this resource, which I’ve been reading through!
Is there a link to the expandable/collapsible version of the full graph, or alternatively an image of the full graph which is in high enough resolution to be able to clearly read the text of the individual nodes? (I haven’t found such a thing anywhere in this LW sequence or the PDF on arXiv, but maybe I missed it.)
I think this sequence of posts is underrated/underappreciated. I think this is because (A) it’s super long and dense and (B) mostly a summary/distillation/textbook thingy rather than advancing new claims or arguing for something controversial. As a result of (a) and (b) perhaps it struggles to hold people’s attention all the way through.
But that’s a shame because this sort of project seems pretty useful to me. It seems like the community should be throwing money and interns at you, so that you can build a slick interactive website that displays the full graph (perhaps with expandable/collapsible subsections) and has the relevant paragraphs of text appear when you hover over each node, and that would just be Phase 1, Phase 2 would be adding mathematical relationships to the links and numbers to the nodes, such that people can input their own numbers and the whole system updates itself to spit out answers about nodes at the end. The end result would be like a wiki + textbook only better organized and more fun, while simultaneously being a the most detailed and comprehensive quantitative model of AI stuff ever.
Thanks Daniel for that strong vote of confidence!
The full graph is in fact expandable / collapsible, and it does have the ability to display the relevant paragraphs when you hover over a node (although the descriptions are not all filled in yet). It also allows people to enter in their own numbers and spit out updated calculations, exactly as you described. We actually built a nice dashboard for that—we haven’t shown it yet in this sequence because this sequence is mostly focused on phase 1 and that’s for phase 2.
Analytica does have a web version, but it’s a bit clunky and buggy so we haven’t used it so far. However, I was just informed that they are coming out with a major update soon that will include a significantly better web version, so hopefully we can do all this then.
I certainly don’t think we’d say no to additional funding or interns! We could certainly use them—there are quite a few areas that we have not looked into sufficiently because all of our team members were focused on other parts of the model. And we haven’t gotten yet to much of the quantitative part (phase 2 as you called it), or the formal elicitation part.
Thank you for this resource, which I’ve been reading through!
Is there a link to the expandable/collapsible version of the full graph, or alternatively an image of the full graph which is in high enough resolution to be able to clearly read the text of the individual nodes? (I haven’t found such a thing anywhere in this LW sequence or the PDF on arXiv, but maybe I missed it.)