It’s a pretty crazy offer. It would require me to be supremely confident in singularity by 2030, way more confident than my words indicated, PLUS it is dominated by me just taking out a loan. By a huge margin. (remember money is much less valuable to me in worlds where I lose) Previously I’ve made bets with people about singularity by 2030 and we used resolution criteria along the lines of what I proposed, so I initially thought that’s what you had in mind.
There’s just seems to be something a bit odd about the way you understand probability. A 96% chance of something happening, or not happening, is pretty much a normal everyday situation.
e.g. For those living in an older condo or apartment with 3 or more elevators, the chances of all of their elevators working on any given day is in that range.
For those who own an old car, the chances of nothing malfunctioning on a road trip is in that range.
For those that have bought many LED lightbulbs in batches, the chances for none of them to prematurely fail after the first few months is in that range, as many will attest.
Yes, I have more than 96% credence in lots of things. But it’s crazy to expect me to have it in singularity by 2030, even after I said that singularity would probably happen by 2030.
It’s a pretty crazy offer. It would require me to be supremely confident in singularity by 2030,...
I read ‘supremely confident’ as implying an extraordinary, exceptional, level of confidence, hence my previous comment about an odd understanding of probability. If you didn’t mean to imply it, then that’s fine.
Anyways, you are free to reject or ignore any offered bets without needing to write any justification, that’s a well established norm on LW.
Okay… then why were you confused as to the ‘craziness’ of the offer?
My offer is clearly more favourable to you then the already established precedent linked.
It’s a pretty crazy offer. It would require me to be supremely confident in singularity by 2030, way more confident than my words indicated, PLUS it is dominated by me just taking out a loan. By a huge margin. (remember money is much less valuable to me in worlds where I lose) Previously I’ve made bets with people about singularity by 2030 and we used resolution criteria along the lines of what I proposed, so I initially thought that’s what you had in mind.
There’s just seems to be something a bit odd about the way you understand probability. A 96% chance of something happening, or not happening, is pretty much a normal everyday situation.
e.g. For those living in an older condo or apartment with 3 or more elevators, the chances of all of their elevators working on any given day is in that range.
For those who own an old car, the chances of nothing malfunctioning on a road trip is in that range.
For those that have bought many LED lightbulbs in batches, the chances for none of them to prematurely fail after the first few months is in that range, as many will attest.
etc...
Yes, I have more than 96% credence in lots of things. But it’s crazy to expect me to have it in singularity by 2030, even after I said that singularity would probably happen by 2030.
I read ‘supremely confident’ as implying an extraordinary, exceptional, level of confidence, hence my previous comment about an odd understanding of probability. If you didn’t mean to imply it, then that’s fine.
Anyways, you are free to reject or ignore any offered bets without needing to write any justification, that’s a well established norm on LW.