Yes, I have more than 96% credence in lots of things. But it’s crazy to expect me to have it in singularity by 2030, even after I said that singularity would probably happen by 2030.
It’s a pretty crazy offer. It would require me to be supremely confident in singularity by 2030,...
I read ‘supremely confident’ as implying an extraordinary, exceptional, level of confidence, hence my previous comment about an odd understanding of probability. If you didn’t mean to imply it, then that’s fine.
Anyways, you are free to reject or ignore any offered bets without needing to write any justification, that’s a well established norm on LW.
Yes, I have more than 96% credence in lots of things. But it’s crazy to expect me to have it in singularity by 2030, even after I said that singularity would probably happen by 2030.
I read ‘supremely confident’ as implying an extraordinary, exceptional, level of confidence, hence my previous comment about an odd understanding of probability. If you didn’t mean to imply it, then that’s fine.
Anyways, you are free to reject or ignore any offered bets without needing to write any justification, that’s a well established norm on LW.