It would be very interesting to conduct a poll between the users of LW. I expect that it would show that this site is quite biased towards more negative outcomes than the average ML researcher in this study.
Also, it would be interesting to see how it correlates with karma, I expect a positive correlation between karma score and pessimism
It looks like most voters have low carma. Biggest exception is https://www.lesswrong.com/users/daniel-kokotajlo and his estimates are 80-90% of doom:( But he thinks that it can be reduced significantly with a vast ($1 trillion) funding.
It would be very interesting to conduct a poll between the users of LW. I expect that it would show that this site is quite biased towards more negative outcomes than the average ML researcher in this study.
Also, it would be interesting to see how it correlates with karma, I expect a positive correlation between karma score and pessimism
It was about 50%
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KxRauM9bv97aWnbJb/results-prediction-thread-about-how-different-factors-affect
I see. Thanks! So crazily high. I would still like to see a correlation with the karma values
It looks like most voters have low carma. Biggest exception is https://www.lesswrong.com/users/daniel-kokotajlo
and his estimates are 80-90% of doom:( But he thinks that it can be reduced significantly with a vast ($1 trillion) funding.
Others with high karma are https://www.lesswrong.com/users/quintin-pope and https://www.lesswrong.com/users/tailcalled with 0-10% and 50-60%