I agree with some of your complaints here. But Eliezer has more of a track record than you indicate. E.g. he made one attempt that I know of to time the stock market, buying on March 23, 2020 - the day on which it made its low for 2020.
That’s good, but it doesn’t really add much to a forecasting track record. Doesn’t meet the criteria. I do think he would be good, if he did proper forecasting. EDIT 10 days later: I would be happy to hear from the downvoters why they think that example tells us much, OR why it’s anyone’s job other than Eliezer to curate his predictions into something accountable (instead of the stuff he said to Paul for example.)
I agree with some of your complaints here. But Eliezer has more of a track record than you indicate. E.g. he made one attempt that I know of to time the stock market, buying on March 23, 2020 - the day on which it made its low for 2020.
There are further shards of a track record strewn across the internet:
The bets registry shows two bets lost by Eliezer Yudkowsky, none won
The public figure profile on Metaculus has no resolved predictions yet
Might be worth noting the odds for people who don’t click through: these were at 1:1 and 1:20 (his 1 to Gwern’s 20).
That’s good, but it doesn’t really add much to a forecasting track record. Doesn’t meet the criteria. I do think he would be good, if he did proper forecasting. EDIT 10 days later: I would be happy to hear from the downvoters why they think that example tells us much, OR why it’s anyone’s job other than Eliezer to curate his predictions into something accountable (instead of the stuff he said to Paul for example.)