That’s good, but it doesn’t really add much to a forecasting track record. Doesn’t meet the criteria. I do think he would be good, if he did proper forecasting. EDIT 10 days later: I would be happy to hear from the downvoters why they think that example tells us much, OR why it’s anyone’s job other than Eliezer to curate his predictions into something accountable (instead of the stuff he said to Paul for example.)
That’s good, but it doesn’t really add much to a forecasting track record. Doesn’t meet the criteria. I do think he would be good, if he did proper forecasting. EDIT 10 days later: I would be happy to hear from the downvoters why they think that example tells us much, OR why it’s anyone’s job other than Eliezer to curate his predictions into something accountable (instead of the stuff he said to Paul for example.)