I agree with you on most counts, but am not updating as much as I would against Eliezer’s epistemic hygiene here as I would because you say Eliezer didn’t bet Paul, but he did, and you know he did, but didn’t issue a correction, which indicates the evidence may be selected overly much for dumb comments that Eliezer has made but possibly didn’t put all that much thought into.
Upvoted—I agree that that bet they made should be included in the post, around when I’m mentioning how Eliezer told Paul he doesn’t have “a track record like this”. He did decline to bet Paul in that comment I am quoting, claiming Paul “didn’t need to bet him”. But you are right that it’s wrong not to include the bet they do have going, and not just the one with Bryan Caplan. I’ve made some edits to include it.
I agree with you on most counts, but am not updating as much as I would against Eliezer’s epistemic hygiene here as I would because you say Eliezer didn’t bet Paul, but he did, and you know he did, but didn’t issue a correction, which indicates the evidence may be selected overly much for dumb comments that Eliezer has made but possibly didn’t put all that much thought into.
Upvoted—I agree that that bet they made should be included in the post, around when I’m mentioning how Eliezer told Paul he doesn’t have “a track record like this”. He did decline to bet Paul in that comment I am quoting, claiming Paul “didn’t need to bet him”. But you are right that it’s wrong not to include the bet they do have going, and not just the one with Bryan Caplan. I’ve made some edits to include it.