Abiogenesis seems to depend on the random synthesis of a 100-pieces long stand of RNA capable to self-replicate. Chances of it on any given planet is like 10E-50.
Interstellar panspermia has much less variables, and we know that most of its ingredients are already in place: martian meteorites, interstellar comets. It may have like 0.01 initial probability.
Non-observation of aliens may be explained by the fact that a) either p(intelligence|life) is very small or b) we are the first of many nearby siblings and will meet them soon (local grabby aliens).
I think you’re overly-confident of the difficulty of abiogenesis, given our ignorance of the matter. For example, it could be that some simpler (easier to start) self-replicating system came first, with RNA then getting used as an enhancement to that system, and eventually replacing it—just as it’s currently thought that DNA (mostly) replaced RNA (as the inherited genetic material) after the RNA world developed.
Actually, it looks like from this that FNIC favors simpler ways of abiogenesis—as there will be more planets with life and more chances for me to appear.
Abiogenesis seems to depend on the random synthesis of a 100-pieces long stand of RNA capable to self-replicate. Chances of it on any given planet is like 10E-50.
Interstellar panspermia has much less variables, and we know that most of its ingredients are already in place: martian meteorites, interstellar comets. It may have like 0.01 initial probability.
Non-observation of aliens may be explained by the fact that a) either p(intelligence|life) is very small or b) we are the first of many nearby siblings and will meet them soon (local grabby aliens).
I think you’re overly-confident of the difficulty of abiogenesis, given our ignorance of the matter. For example, it could be that some simpler (easier to start) self-replicating system came first, with RNA then getting used as an enhancement to that system, and eventually replacing it—just as it’s currently thought that DNA (mostly) replaced RNA (as the inherited genetic material) after the RNA world developed.
Actually, it looks like from this that FNIC favors simpler ways of abiogenesis—as there will be more planets with life and more chances for me to appear.