You’re forgetting the “non-indexical” part of FNC. With FNC, one finds conditional probabilities given that “someone has your exact memories”, not that “you have your exact memories”. The universe is assumed to be small enough that it is unlikely that there are two people with the same exact memories, so (by assumption) there are not millions of exact copies of you. (If that were true, there would likely be at least one (maybe many) copies of people with practically any set of memories, rendering FNC useless.)
If you assume that abiogenesis is difficult, then FNC does indeed favour panspermia, since it would make the existence of someone with your exact memories more likely. (Again, the non-observation of aliens may provide a counteracting inference.) But I don’t see any reason to think that abiogenesis is less (or more) difficult than panspermia, with our present state of knowledge.
Abiogenesis seems to depend on the random synthesis of a 100-pieces long stand of RNA capable to self-replicate. Chances of it on any given planet is like 10E-50.
Interstellar panspermia has much less variables, and we know that most of its ingredients are already in place: martian meteorites, interstellar comets. It may have like 0.01 initial probability.
Non-observation of aliens may be explained by the fact that a) either p(intelligence|life) is very small or b) we are the first of many nearby siblings and will meet them soon (local grabby aliens).
I think you’re overly-confident of the difficulty of abiogenesis, given our ignorance of the matter. For example, it could be that some simpler (easier to start) self-replicating system came first, with RNA then getting used as an enhancement to that system, and eventually replacing it—just as it’s currently thought that DNA (mostly) replaced RNA (as the inherited genetic material) after the RNA world developed.
Actually, it looks like from this that FNIC favors simpler ways of abiogenesis—as there will be more planets with life and more chances for me to appear.
You’re forgetting the “non-indexical” part of FNC. With FNC, one finds conditional probabilities given that “someone has your exact memories”, not that “you have your exact memories”. The universe is assumed to be small enough that it is unlikely that there are two people with the same exact memories, so (by assumption) there are not millions of exact copies of you. (If that were true, there would likely be at least one (maybe many) copies of people with practically any set of memories, rendering FNC useless.)
If you assume that abiogenesis is difficult, then FNC does indeed favour panspermia, since it would make the existence of someone with your exact memories more likely. (Again, the non-observation of aliens may provide a counteracting inference.) But I don’t see any reason to think that abiogenesis is less (or more) difficult than panspermia, with our present state of knowledge.
Abiogenesis seems to depend on the random synthesis of a 100-pieces long stand of RNA capable to self-replicate. Chances of it on any given planet is like 10E-50.
Interstellar panspermia has much less variables, and we know that most of its ingredients are already in place: martian meteorites, interstellar comets. It may have like 0.01 initial probability.
Non-observation of aliens may be explained by the fact that a) either p(intelligence|life) is very small or b) we are the first of many nearby siblings and will meet them soon (local grabby aliens).
I think you’re overly-confident of the difficulty of abiogenesis, given our ignorance of the matter. For example, it could be that some simpler (easier to start) self-replicating system came first, with RNA then getting used as an enhancement to that system, and eventually replacing it—just as it’s currently thought that DNA (mostly) replaced RNA (as the inherited genetic material) after the RNA world developed.
Actually, it looks like from this that FNIC favors simpler ways of abiogenesis—as there will be more planets with life and more chances for me to appear.