The amount Carver gains from a Yeti carcass is given by 70+1d6-[DSD]d6
No, I already went over this with GuySrinivasan lol...
line # 89 (carcass # 88): Yeti,0,60sp,60sp,77sp
Anyways, I’m assuming that’s a typo there and you meant to put in 72.
Also
60-28*[DSD] for Snow Serpents
that should be a 20.
This one really brought home to me the usefulness of strong (yet correct) priors.
Assuming that the typo wasn’t in the d6, credit to GuySrivinisan for correctly defending the d6 against the weight of evidence for the d5. Also, the insistence on a higher prior probability for age distribution than a weighted average that just happens to be triangular would have.
This puzzle was made a lot easier by the simplicity of the model, e.g. everything was independent from everything else, except for bids and value obtained depending on monster type and days since death which we were primed to expect by the problem, and no hidden variables except the necessary randomness to actually have something to work out. I don’t particularly feel like a Bayesian superintelligence though maybe all problems look like this to one sufficiently advanced.
Looking forward to whatever non-puzzle you have in mind for Monday.
Yeah not the superintelligence bit, more like oh with strong priors and not a ton of data you can just discover everything there is to know about the “laws of physics”.
No, I already went over this with GuySrinivasan lol...
line # 89 (carcass # 88): Yeti,0,60sp,60sp,77sp
Anyways, I’m assuming that’s a typo there and you meant to put in 72.
Also
that should be a 20.
This one really brought home to me the usefulness of strong (yet correct) priors.
Assuming that the typo wasn’t in the d6, credit to GuySrivinisan for correctly defending the d6 against the weight of evidence for the d5. Also, the insistence on a higher prior probability for age distribution than a weighted average that just happens to be triangular would have.
This puzzle was made a lot easier by the simplicity of the model, e.g. everything was independent from everything else, except for bids and value obtained depending on monster type and days since death which we were primed to expect by the problem, and no hidden variables except the necessary randomness to actually have something to work out. I don’t particularly feel like a Bayesian superintelligence though maybe all problems look like this to one sufficiently advanced.
Looking forward to whatever non-puzzle you have in mind for Monday.
Yeah not the superintelligence bit, more like oh with strong priors and not a ton of data you can just discover everything there is to know about the “laws of physics”.
Thanks, yes, you’re completely right; I wrote this for an older version of the scenario and forgot to change it. Edited now.