Thanks! But it seems you’re being needlessly abrasive about it. Perhaps it’s a cultural thing? Anyway, did you read the expanded version of my comment? I tried to be clearer in my explanation there, but it’s hard to convey philosophical intuitions.
The problem with that idea is that there is no default level of belief. You are not allowed to say
These are of course ridiculous ideas, but ridiculous ideas that I am nonetheless hesitant to assign negligible probability to.
What is the difference between hesitating to assign negligible probability vs. to assign non-negligible probability? Which way is the certainty, which way is doubt? If you don’t have good understanding of why you should believe one way or the other, you can’t appoint a direction where safe level of credence lies and stay there pending the enlightenment.
Your argument is not strong enough to shift the belief of one in septillion up to something believable, but your argument must be that strong to do it. You can’t appeal to being hesitant to believe otherwise, it’s not a strong argument, but a statement about not having one.
Thanks! But it seems you’re being needlessly abrasive about it. Perhaps it’s a cultural thing? Anyway, did you read the expanded version of my comment? I tried to be clearer in my explanation there, but it’s hard to convey philosophical intuitions.
I find myself unable to clearly articulate what’s wrong with your idea, but in my own words, it reads as follows:
“One should believe certain things to be probable because those are the kinds of things that people believe through magical thinking.”
The problem with that idea is that there is no default level of belief. You are not allowed to say
What is the difference between hesitating to assign negligible probability vs. to assign non-negligible probability? Which way is the certainty, which way is doubt? If you don’t have good understanding of why you should believe one way or the other, you can’t appoint a direction where safe level of credence lies and stay there pending the enlightenment.
Your argument is not strong enough to shift the belief of one in septillion up to something believable, but your argument must be that strong to do it. You can’t appeal to being hesitant to believe otherwise, it’s not a strong argument, but a statement about not having one.