Yeah, that’s sorta my hope. The model is too abstract and disconnected from real-world numbers to be able to predict things like “The singularity will happen in 2045” but maybe it can predict things like “If you’ve had exponential growth for a while, it is very unlikely a priori / outside-view that growth will slow, and in fact quite likely that it will accelerate dramatically. Unless you are literally running out of room to grow, i.e. hitting fundamental physical limits in almost all endeavors.”
Yeah, that’s sorta my hope. The model is too abstract and disconnected from real-world numbers to be able to predict things like “The singularity will happen in 2045” but maybe it can predict things like “If you’ve had exponential growth for a while, it is very unlikely a priori / outside-view that growth will slow, and in fact quite likely that it will accelerate dramatically. Unless you are literally running out of room to grow, i.e. hitting fundamental physical limits in almost all endeavors.”