You might be producing some useful info, but mostly about whether an arbitrary system exibits unlimited exponential growth. If you got 1000 different programmers to each throw together some model of tech progress, some based on completing tasks, some based on extracting resources, some based on random differential equations ect, and see what proportion of them give exponential growth and then stagnation. Actually, there isn’t a scale on your model, so who can say if the running out of tasks, or stagnation are next year or in 100000 years. At best, you will be able to tell how strongly outside view priors should favor exp growth over growth and then decay. (Pure growth is clearly simpler, but how much simpler?)
Yeah, that’s sorta my hope. The model is too abstract and disconnected from real-world numbers to be able to predict things like “The singularity will happen in 2045” but maybe it can predict things like “If you’ve had exponential growth for a while, it is very unlikely a priori / outside-view that growth will slow, and in fact quite likely that it will accelerate dramatically. Unless you are literally running out of room to grow, i.e. hitting fundamental physical limits in almost all endeavors.”
You might be producing some useful info, but mostly about whether an arbitrary system exibits unlimited exponential growth. If you got 1000 different programmers to each throw together some model of tech progress, some based on completing tasks, some based on extracting resources, some based on random differential equations ect, and see what proportion of them give exponential growth and then stagnation. Actually, there isn’t a scale on your model, so who can say if the running out of tasks, or stagnation are next year or in 100000 years. At best, you will be able to tell how strongly outside view priors should favor exp growth over growth and then decay. (Pure growth is clearly simpler, but how much simpler?)
Yeah, that’s sorta my hope. The model is too abstract and disconnected from real-world numbers to be able to predict things like “The singularity will happen in 2045” but maybe it can predict things like “If you’ve had exponential growth for a while, it is very unlikely a priori / outside-view that growth will slow, and in fact quite likely that it will accelerate dramatically. Unless you are literally running out of room to grow, i.e. hitting fundamental physical limits in almost all endeavors.”