They are not very explicit about it (which is a huge problem by itself), but they seem to be saying that they are only predicting the “first wave”—so they are not predicting 0 deaths after July—they just defining them to not be a part of the “first wave” anymore. So the way they present the model predictions is even more unbelievably wrong than the model itself!
Even with that as the goal this model is useless—social distancing demonstrably does not lead to 0 new infections. Even Wuhan didn’t manage that, and they were literally welding people’s doors shut.
But don’t you see—those infections are a second wave, so do not have to be counted. The model is almost tautologically true that way. But terribly misleading, and very irresponsibly so.
They are not very explicit about it (which is a huge problem by itself), but they seem to be saying that they are only predicting the “first wave”—so they are not predicting 0 deaths after July—they just defining them to not be a part of the “first wave” anymore. So the way they present the model predictions is even more unbelievably wrong than the model itself!
Even with that as the goal this model is useless—social distancing demonstrably does not lead to 0 new infections. Even Wuhan didn’t manage that, and they were literally welding people’s doors shut.
But don’t you see—those infections are a second wave, so do not have to be counted. The model is almost tautologically true that way. But terribly misleading, and very irresponsibly so.