The goal is not to dismiss counterfactuals, but to understand where they come from, and how are they relevant for reasoning about the actual world. Distinguish inability to reason informally from lack of formal understanding of the structure of that informal reasoning.
Okay: Thinking about how things would differ now, or in future, based on a slightly modified version of the past, allows us to accurately consider what the world could be like, in the future, based on our options in the present.
That something is, doesn’t answer why it’s normatively useful (“they come from the thinker”).
You said you sought to understand where they came from. That they come from the thinker is an answer to that. I answered how they’re relevant in the second part of the post (and the first part of this one)
You ignore these points and repeat something contradictory to them, which is wrong in a debate even if you don’t accept them. You (or I) need to find another path, and not rehash the same ground.
Okay, I’ll go point to point, and try and understand what you meant in that post, that you think I’m ignoring.
Things don’t change.
This is simply false, as a statement, so I won’t treat it on it’s own.
When you make a decision, you are not changing the future, you are deciding the future.
This is fine. Sure. My post works fine within such a structure.
The future is what it is given your actual decision,
True. But making choices requires that one accept that one doesn’t know what the future is, nor does one know what one’s decision will be. It requires the use of “if… then” thoughts, or counterfactuals.
So, nope, not ignored, just irrelevant.
all else is fantasy
Emotional dismissal, not an actual point.
(logically inconsistent even, because the structure of your own mind implies only one decision, when you ignore some unimportant cognitive noise)
A good counterfactual should be logically consistent. It isn’t the real world, but the real world isn’t the only logically consistent possible world.
Perhaps you’re making the same mistake as you made with the term “logically impossible” earlier?
perhaps morally important fantasy whose structure we ought to understand, but still not the reality.
Dismissal, not an actual point.
EDIT: So, which of those are you claiming I contradicted exactly?
This is simply false, as a statement, so I won’t treat it on it’s own.
It has an intended interpretation that isn’t false, which I referred in the following statements which you’ve accepted. (It’s more of a summary than a separate point.)
The future is what it is given your actual decision,
True. But making choices requires that one accept that one doesn’t know what the future is, nor does one know what one’s decision will be. It requires the use of “if… then” thoughts, or counterfactuals.
Yes. If there is a (logical) fact in what your actual decision is, say it’s actually A, and you are uncertain about what it’ll be, then the assumption A=B is logically false, inconsistent, even if you don’t know that it is. When you reason about what happens if A=B, not knowing that it’s a false statement, you are reasoning from a false premise, and everything logically follows from a false premise. This is the relevance of this description.
all else is fantasy
Emotional dismissal, not an actual point.
Not emotional. What else is there? There is reality, and then all the thoughts you can have to reason about reality.
A good counterfactual should be logically consistent. It isn’t the real world, but the real world isn’t the only logically consistent possible world.
If there is a fact of the matter of what your action is, then assuming a possible action that is not actual is logically inconsistent. This is normal. If you are considering something that is not the real world, you need to explain what relation it has to the real world, and how this particular not-real-world is different from all the other not-real-worlds, and what this not-real-world actually is, especially if it’s inconsistent, but even if it’s consistent, there is still the same question of what privileges it, since it’s not the real world, and real world is what you want to reason about.
perhaps morally important fantasy whose structure we ought to understand, but still not the reality.
Dismissal, not an actual point.
It’s a point that it’s unclear what relation is there between the counterfactuals and reality, given that counterfactuals are usually not the reality.
EDIT: So, which of those are you claiming I contradicted exactly?
You referred to “slightly modified version of the past”, and modifying things is starting to consider things other than reality, where it becomes unclear how considering those not-real things helps to understand reality. (Uncertainty is a much better concept than change in this context.) I would further qualify that you can’t change your notion of reality without moving away from your original notion of reality, and thus conceptualizing something other than reality, when what you wish to understand is reality, and not this not-reality you’ve constructed by modifying the concept.
Yes. If there is a fact in what your actual decision is, say it’s actually A, and you are uncertain about what it’ll be, then the assumption A=B is logically false, inconsistent, even if you don’t know that it is.
Where is the inconsistency?
If you assume both that the actual action (A) and the possible, but not actual, action (B) you have an inconsistency.
But if you assume only B; ie. you assume a world as similar to this one as possible where you are such that you will choose action B, then it is perfectly consistent.
hen you reason about what happens if A=B, not knowing that it’s a false statement, you are reasoning from a false premise, and everything logically follows from a false premise. This is the relevance of this description.
But, as I have already explained, reasoning about counterfactuals is not, in fact, reasoning in such a way. The statement “If I am in front of you, I am punching you in the face” is true. The statement “If I were in front of you, I would be punching you in the face” is a different, false, statement.
Similarly “If I did not post this comment you are a pizza” is true, but “If I had not posted this comment, you would be a pizza” is false
Until you are willing to grapple with your confusion on this issue, I don’t see this conversation being productive.
If you assume both that the actual action (A) and the possible, but not actual, action (B) you have an inconsistency.
Yes.
But if you assume only B; ie. you assume a world as similar to this one as possible where you are such that you will choose action B, then it is perfectly consistent.
You need to show that this other “similar” world has any relevance to reasoning about the actual world. You are not justified in considering a problem statement that stars a non-actual world unless you explain how that helps in reasoning about the actual world.
Of course we know that intuitively that’s how it works, but it’s not clear why, and “just so” doesn’t help in understanding this mystery. Also, it’s not clear how to generally construct those counterfactuals, even if we leave the question of their relevance aside. Where is the “you” that ought to be replaced in the environment? What about the thoughts about you in other people’s minds, should they be modified as well? If not you run into pitfalls of CDT.
Until you are willing to grapple with your confusion on this issue, I don’t see this conversation being productive.
I’m trying to argue that you should be confused, just as I am confused. Notice your own confusion and all.
You need to show that this other “similar” world has any relevance to reasoning about the actual world.
It allows you to think about cause and effect, and it is a necessity in making rational choices. You cannot make a rational choice without thinking through the consequences of different (counterfactual) possible choices.
You are not justified in considering a problem statement that stars a non-actual world unless you explain how that helps in reasoning about the actual world.
In reasoning with counterfactuals, the counterfactual worlds aren’t “stars” and the certainly aren’t “problem statement”s. They’re tools for thinking about the world and making choices.
but it’s not clear why,
You keep on making it less clear for yourself, by bringing in things like the principle of explosion, which is irrelevant.
Also, it’s not clear how to generally construct those counterfactuals, even if we leave the question of their relevance aside.
I’ve explained a general method for constructing the counterfactuals already. You assume the smallest possible divergence that could lead to the specific divergence you’re interested in.
Where is the “you” that ought to be replaced in the environment?
That’s a problem with personal identity, not counterfactuals. Sure, it’s an important problem, but adding more confusions to this discussion will not help you to understand counterfactuals.
What about the thoughts about you in other people’s minds, should they be modified as well?
To the extent that they were caused by the properties you had at the time.
I’m trying to argue that you should be confused, just as I am confused. Notice your own confusion and all.
But all the reasons you’ve given for your confusion seem to be trivially irrelevant, or incorrect. The reasons for your confusion seem to be confusions, not good reasons.
Curious. I was arguing motivation for study of TDT/UDT/ADT, without betraying any knowledge about results that are already known. And you’ve managed to rule out all combinations of confusions these theories are intended to resolve as being irrelevant. The general pattern I see here is that any individual question has an “obvious” intuitive answer, especially if you don’t go into detail, and you refuse to either consider multiple questions at once (since they are “unrelated”), or to go deeply enough into each of them individually (since if you assume the intuitive understanding of the other questions, they provide strong enough support for not being confused about this one too).
In other words, you are trapped in the net of intuitive understanding of multiple concepts that help in understanding each other, and are comfortable with this level of understanding, which makes any attempt to look deeper into their nature preposterous to you.
You were arguing from a position whereby you couldn’t tell the difference between the statements “If I had precommitted to not give into blackmail I wouldn’t have been blackmailed” and “If I had precommitted to call upon the FSM for help, the FSM would exist”
That is a very confused position. I have since explained the difference between those things.
Every confusion you have actually brought to the fore, I have clarified; with the exception of the confusion of “what makes personal identity”; because that wasn’t the topic at hand. It’s a big and complicated, and seperable, issue. And yes, the personal identity issue leads to some changes in decision theory. But we’re not talking about decision theory at the moment.
If you think I haven’t clarified one of your confusions, please point it out? Because, honestly, you seem to be just plain ignoring any attempts at clarification.
Because, honestly, you seem to be just plain ignoring any attempts at clarification.
Informal, intuitive attempts at clarifications. Attempts at clarification that don’t give deep understanding of what’s going on. The standard of understanding I was aiming at, in particular by refusing to accept less formal explanations.
So you say, but you don’t point out any difficulty with them.
You simply dismiss them like that.
Your confusions are faux-logical (talking about worlds being logically impossible, when they’re not; talking about the principle of explosion, when it doesn’t apply); if you want a thorough clarification, give a thorough problem.
The goal is not to dismiss counterfactuals, but to understand where they come from, and how are they relevant for reasoning about the actual world. Distinguish inability to reason informally from lack of formal understanding of the structure of that informal reasoning.
They are a mode of thought. They come from the thinker.
They allow you to look at cause and effect. Without counterfactuals, you can’t reason about cause and effect, you can only reason about correlation.
Taboo cause, effect, taboo counterfactuals. That something is, doesn’t answer why it’s normatively useful (“they come from the thinker”).
Okay: Thinking about how things would differ now, or in future, based on a slightly modified version of the past, allows us to accurately consider what the world could be like, in the future, based on our options in the present.
You said you sought to understand where they came from. That they come from the thinker is an answer to that. I answered how they’re relevant in the second part of the post (and the first part of this one)
You ignore these points and repeat something contradictory to them, which is wrong in a debate even if you don’t accept them. You (or I) need to find another path, and not rehash the same ground.
Okay, I’ll go point to point, and try and understand what you meant in that post, that you think I’m ignoring.
This is simply false, as a statement, so I won’t treat it on it’s own.
This is fine. Sure. My post works fine within such a structure.
True. But making choices requires that one accept that one doesn’t know what the future is, nor does one know what one’s decision will be. It requires the use of “if… then” thoughts, or counterfactuals.
So, nope, not ignored, just irrelevant.
Emotional dismissal, not an actual point.
A good counterfactual should be logically consistent. It isn’t the real world, but the real world isn’t the only logically consistent possible world.
Perhaps you’re making the same mistake as you made with the term “logically impossible” earlier?
Dismissal, not an actual point.
EDIT: So, which of those are you claiming I contradicted exactly?
It has an intended interpretation that isn’t false, which I referred in the following statements which you’ve accepted. (It’s more of a summary than a separate point.)
Yes. If there is a (logical) fact in what your actual decision is, say it’s actually A, and you are uncertain about what it’ll be, then the assumption A=B is logically false, inconsistent, even if you don’t know that it is. When you reason about what happens if A=B, not knowing that it’s a false statement, you are reasoning from a false premise, and everything logically follows from a false premise. This is the relevance of this description.
Not emotional. What else is there? There is reality, and then all the thoughts you can have to reason about reality.
If there is a fact of the matter of what your action is, then assuming a possible action that is not actual is logically inconsistent. This is normal. If you are considering something that is not the real world, you need to explain what relation it has to the real world, and how this particular not-real-world is different from all the other not-real-worlds, and what this not-real-world actually is, especially if it’s inconsistent, but even if it’s consistent, there is still the same question of what privileges it, since it’s not the real world, and real world is what you want to reason about.
It’s a point that it’s unclear what relation is there between the counterfactuals and reality, given that counterfactuals are usually not the reality.
You referred to “slightly modified version of the past”, and modifying things is starting to consider things other than reality, where it becomes unclear how considering those not-real things helps to understand reality. (Uncertainty is a much better concept than change in this context.) I would further qualify that you can’t change your notion of reality without moving away from your original notion of reality, and thus conceptualizing something other than reality, when what you wish to understand is reality, and not this not-reality you’ve constructed by modifying the concept.
Where is the inconsistency?
If you assume both that the actual action (A) and the possible, but not actual, action (B) you have an inconsistency.
But if you assume only B; ie. you assume a world as similar to this one as possible where you are such that you will choose action B, then it is perfectly consistent.
But, as I have already explained, reasoning about counterfactuals is not, in fact, reasoning in such a way. The statement “If I am in front of you, I am punching you in the face” is true. The statement “If I were in front of you, I would be punching you in the face” is a different, false, statement.
Similarly “If I did not post this comment you are a pizza” is true, but “If I had not posted this comment, you would be a pizza” is false
Until you are willing to grapple with your confusion on this issue, I don’t see this conversation being productive.
Yes.
You need to show that this other “similar” world has any relevance to reasoning about the actual world. You are not justified in considering a problem statement that stars a non-actual world unless you explain how that helps in reasoning about the actual world.
Of course we know that intuitively that’s how it works, but it’s not clear why, and “just so” doesn’t help in understanding this mystery. Also, it’s not clear how to generally construct those counterfactuals, even if we leave the question of their relevance aside. Where is the “you” that ought to be replaced in the environment? What about the thoughts about you in other people’s minds, should they be modified as well? If not you run into pitfalls of CDT.
I’m trying to argue that you should be confused, just as I am confused. Notice your own confusion and all.
It allows you to think about cause and effect, and it is a necessity in making rational choices. You cannot make a rational choice without thinking through the consequences of different (counterfactual) possible choices.
In reasoning with counterfactuals, the counterfactual worlds aren’t “stars” and the certainly aren’t “problem statement”s. They’re tools for thinking about the world and making choices.
You keep on making it less clear for yourself, by bringing in things like the principle of explosion, which is irrelevant.
I’ve explained a general method for constructing the counterfactuals already. You assume the smallest possible divergence that could lead to the specific divergence you’re interested in.
That’s a problem with personal identity, not counterfactuals. Sure, it’s an important problem, but adding more confusions to this discussion will not help you to understand counterfactuals.
To the extent that they were caused by the properties you had at the time.
But all the reasons you’ve given for your confusion seem to be trivially irrelevant, or incorrect. The reasons for your confusion seem to be confusions, not good reasons.
Curious. I was arguing motivation for study of TDT/UDT/ADT, without betraying any knowledge about results that are already known. And you’ve managed to rule out all combinations of confusions these theories are intended to resolve as being irrelevant. The general pattern I see here is that any individual question has an “obvious” intuitive answer, especially if you don’t go into detail, and you refuse to either consider multiple questions at once (since they are “unrelated”), or to go deeply enough into each of them individually (since if you assume the intuitive understanding of the other questions, they provide strong enough support for not being confused about this one too).
In other words, you are trapped in the net of intuitive understanding of multiple concepts that help in understanding each other, and are comfortable with this level of understanding, which makes any attempt to look deeper into their nature preposterous to you.
You were arguing from a position whereby you couldn’t tell the difference between the statements “If I had precommitted to not give into blackmail I wouldn’t have been blackmailed” and “If I had precommitted to call upon the FSM for help, the FSM would exist”
That is a very confused position. I have since explained the difference between those things.
Every confusion you have actually brought to the fore, I have clarified; with the exception of the confusion of “what makes personal identity”; because that wasn’t the topic at hand. It’s a big and complicated, and seperable, issue. And yes, the personal identity issue leads to some changes in decision theory. But we’re not talking about decision theory at the moment.
If you think I haven’t clarified one of your confusions, please point it out? Because, honestly, you seem to be just plain ignoring any attempts at clarification.
Informal, intuitive attempts at clarifications. Attempts at clarification that don’t give deep understanding of what’s going on. The standard of understanding I was aiming at, in particular by refusing to accept less formal explanations.
So you say, but you don’t point out any difficulty with them.
You simply dismiss them like that.
Your confusions are faux-logical (talking about worlds being logically impossible, when they’re not; talking about the principle of explosion, when it doesn’t apply); if you want a thorough clarification, give a thorough problem.