I think your cynical take is pretty wrong, for the reasons Evan described. I’d add that because of the way academic prestige works, you are vulnerable to having your ideas stolen if you just write them up on LessWrong and don’t publish them. You’ll definitely get fewer citations, less recognition, etc.
I think people’s stated motivations are the real motivations: Jumping through hoops to format your work for academia has opportunity costs and they don’t judge those costs to be worth it.
Here are two hypotheses for why they don’t judge those costs to be worth it, each one of which is much more plausible to me than the one you proposed:
(1) The costs aren’t in fact worth it & they’ve reacted appropriately to the evidence. (2) The costs are worth it, but thanks to motivated reasoning, they exaggerate the costs, because writing things up in academic style and then dealing with the publication process is boring and frustrating.
Seriously, isn’t (2) a much better hypothesis than the one you put forth about moats?
I’m not necessarily saying people are subconsciously trying to create a moat.
I’m saying they are acting in a way that creates a moat, and that enables them to avoid competition, and that more competition would create more motivation for them to write things up for academic audiences (or even just write more clearly for non-academic audiences).
Me, reflecting afterwards: hmm… Cynically,[2] not publishing is a really good way to create a moat around your research… People who want to work on that area have to come talk to you, and you can be a gatekeeper. And you don’t have to worry about somebody with more skills and experience coming along and trashing your work or out-competing you and rendering it obsolete...
I’m not accusing anyone of having bad motivations; I think it is almost always valuable to consider both people’s concious motivations and their incentives (which may be subconscious (EtA: or indirect) drivers of their behavior).
Before you put in the EtA, it sure sounded like you were saying that people were subconsciously motivated to avoid academic publishing because it helped them build and preserve a moat. Now, after the EtA, it still sounds like that but is a bit more unclear since ‘indirect’ is a bit more ambiguous than ‘subconscious.’
Worth it to whom? And if they did work that’s valuable, how much of that value is lost if others who could benefit don’t see it, because it’s written up only informally or not shared widely?
I think that the costs usually are worth it far more often than it occurs, from an outside view—which was David’s point, and what I was trying to respond to. I think that it’s more valuable than one expects to actually just jump through the hoops. And especially for people who haven’t yet ever had any outputs actually published, they really should do that at least once.
If you reread this conversation, you’ll notice that I never said I think these people are correct. I was just saying that their stated motivations and views are their real motivations and views.
I actually do agree with you and David Krueger that on the margin more LW types should be investing in making their work publishable and even getting it published. The plan had always been “do research first, then communicate it to the world when the time is right” well now we are out of time so the time is right.
Thanks, reading closely I see how you said that, but it wasn’t clear initially. (There’s an illusion of disagreement, which I’ll christen the “twitter fight fallacy,” where unless the opposite is said clearly, people automatically assume replies are disagreements.)
I think your cynical take is pretty wrong, for the reasons Evan described. I’d add that because of the way academic prestige works, you are vulnerable to having your ideas stolen if you just write them up on LessWrong and don’t publish them. You’ll definitely get fewer citations, less recognition, etc.
I think people’s stated motivations are the real motivations: Jumping through hoops to format your work for academia has opportunity costs and they don’t judge those costs to be worth it.
My point (see footnote) is that motivations are complex. I do not believe “the real motivations” is a very useful concept here.
The question becomes why “don’t they judge those costs to be worth it”? Is there motivated reasoning involved? Almost certainly yes; there always is.
Here are two hypotheses for why they don’t judge those costs to be worth it, each one of which is much more plausible to me than the one you proposed:
(1) The costs aren’t in fact worth it & they’ve reacted appropriately to the evidence.
(2) The costs are worth it, but thanks to motivated reasoning, they exaggerate the costs, because writing things up in academic style and then dealing with the publication process is boring and frustrating.
Seriously, isn’t (2) a much better hypothesis than the one you put forth about moats?
I’m not necessarily saying people are subconsciously trying to create a moat.
I’m saying they are acting in a way that creates a moat, and that enables them to avoid competition, and that more competition would create more motivation for them to write things up for academic audiences (or even just write more clearly for non-academic audiences).
It sure sounds like you are saying that though!
Before you put in the EtA, it sure sounded like you were saying that people were subconsciously motivated to avoid academic publishing because it helped them build and preserve a moat. Now, after the EtA, it still sounds like that but is a bit more unclear since ‘indirect’ is a bit more ambiguous than ‘subconscious.’
Worth it to whom? And if they did work that’s valuable, how much of that value is lost if others who could benefit don’t see it, because it’s written up only informally or not shared widely?
Worth it to the world/humanity/etc. though maybe some of them are more self-focused.
Probably a big chunk of it is lost for that reason yeah. I’m not sure what your point is, it doesn’t seem to be a reply to anything I said.
I think that the costs usually are worth it far more often than it occurs, from an outside view—which was David’s point, and what I was trying to respond to. I think that it’s more valuable than one expects to actually just jump through the hoops. And especially for people who haven’t yet ever had any outputs actually published, they really should do that at least once.
(Also, sorry for the zombie reply.)
I love zombie replies.
If you reread this conversation, you’ll notice that I never said I think these people are correct. I was just saying that their stated motivations and views are their real motivations and views.
I actually do agree with you and David Krueger that on the margin more LW types should be investing in making their work publishable and even getting it published. The plan had always been “do research first, then communicate it to the world when the time is right” well now we are out of time so the time is right.
Thanks, reading closely I see how you said that, but it wasn’t clear initially. (There’s an illusion of disagreement, which I’ll christen the “twitter fight fallacy,” where unless the opposite is said clearly, people automatically assume replies are disagreements.)