Specifically on the Pfizer press release. Due to various medical conditions I have been following medical research, press releases, government policy etc for many decades and have read cubic meters of medical research papers, textbooks, statistics texts etc.
TL;DR and one thing I have learned : A press release from a pharmaceutical company saying <thing> is very weak evidence that <thing> is true.
In any case realistically a vaccine rollout is extremely unlikely to be done before the end of 2021. This is a best case scenario. And we do not know the extent of the economic damage.
I totally agree that in general a press release is not strong evidence, but in this case we have additional sources of evidence, and also Pfizer has little incentive to put out hype if it can’t deliver, unless I’m missing something. Would be very curious to know why they’d want to do that.
Dr. Fauci explicitly expects an EUA in December with some distribution, and widespread availability by April 2021. Pfizer claims they have 50mm doses now and will have over a billion next year. They say they can distribute the day after EUA, and that they intend to apply within a week.
I am curious why you think such claims are being made and where your model differs from theirs if they are not flat out flying. Are they mistaken, if so what about? Are they lying, if so why?
Press releases about defined endpoints of phase 3 trials are the ones that move the stock price the most, next to mergers. Probably across all companies, not just pharma. The SEC would come calling if they were lies.
That was my basic understanding as well. The claims in these kinds of press releases would be particularly scrutinized by, e.g. the SEC, FDA, etc..
I hadn’t known until I met someone that did it, but many (basically all?) companies have investor relations personnel or consultants. I know that some of those IR people also specialize in pharmaceutical or biomedical companies. They would definitely be involved in writing these kinds of press releases too.
Specifically on the Pfizer press release. Due to various medical conditions I have been following medical research, press releases, government policy etc for many decades and have read cubic meters of medical research papers, textbooks, statistics texts etc.
TL;DR and one thing I have learned : A press release from a pharmaceutical company saying <thing> is very weak evidence that <thing> is true.
In any case realistically a vaccine rollout is extremely unlikely to be done before the end of 2021. This is a best case scenario. And we do not know the extent of the economic damage.
I totally agree that in general a press release is not strong evidence, but in this case we have additional sources of evidence, and also Pfizer has little incentive to put out hype if it can’t deliver, unless I’m missing something. Would be very curious to know why they’d want to do that.
Dr. Fauci explicitly expects an EUA in December with some distribution, and widespread availability by April 2021. Pfizer claims they have 50mm doses now and will have over a billion next year. They say they can distribute the day after EUA, and that they intend to apply within a week.
I am curious why you think such claims are being made and where your model differs from theirs if they are not flat out flying. Are they mistaken, if so what about? Are they lying, if so why?
How strong as evidence are similar press releases tho? Pharmaceutical companies create lots of press releases.
Press releases about defined endpoints of phase 3 trials are the ones that move the stock price the most, next to mergers. Probably across all companies, not just pharma. The SEC would come calling if they were lies.
That was my basic understanding as well. The claims in these kinds of press releases would be particularly scrutinized by, e.g. the SEC, FDA, etc..
I hadn’t known until I met someone that did it, but many (basically all?) companies have investor relations personnel or consultants. I know that some of those IR people also specialize in pharmaceutical or biomedical companies. They would definitely be involved in writing these kinds of press releases too.