Doubly pointed out! Doubly, no evidence needed, just pointing it out.
You have not cited evidence that it is insane. We now have you citing Grognor, who claims Wedrifid thinks it is insane. So the font of pure epistemic truth is a throwaway line by noted anonymous internet commenter wedrifid. I’ll be sure to let all the academics who have been scientifically studying employee selection for decades know about your proclamation.
Better shut down the journals, ladies and gentlemen. The internet has proclaimed you insane. They figured it out from the comfort of their homes, using the power of pure reason and vague memories of reading Dilbert cartoons.
This comment probably got downvoted for unnecessary ranting and sarcasm, even though the point it makes is a valid one: a published study has more credibility than a speculation on a forum.
The point it makes is valid. It is, however, irrelevant and strawman to the point that I made to which it apparently attempts to respond: The science might be right, but the implemented system is potentially-insane, as shown by anecdotal evidence, because it seems to us that the agents of the system do not apply the science and knowledge in question whether it’s correct or not.
In fact, the agents appear to completely ignore the system’s potential rules and instead rely on the Universal Theory of Magic. Whether the study is correct or not, whether it is informative or not, whether it is biased or not, whether it is useful or not… is all completely ignored by the agents of the system, by my observations.
Even “anecdotal” evidence is sufficient for a posterior to become P(There Cannot Ever Be A Case Where X | Anecdote of X) < 1.
If you read carefully, you’ll notice that I wrote potentially-insane. Not “It Must Be Insane Because [Insert Anecdote X]”.
If I’m wrong, please point to me where I’ve misinterpreted / misread Bayes’ Theorem on this. I’d really like to get rid of this irrational manner of thought ASAP.
For the sake of Nitpick, I’ll first argue that I neither ever read Dilbert cartoons nor ever used such a thing as “pure reason” to my knowledge nor wrote any of this from within or benefiting-of-the-comfort-of my own home. However, since I’m just pointing this out, you should, if you persist in this course of argumentation, completely discard what I just said and assume that I did somehow.
The reason I did not present factual evidence, for my part, is that I considered it unnecessary on the prior that it be unlikely that someone who has read Eliezer’s Core sequences (and reflected while doing so) would disagree, if only upon the notion that any prior in favor of “a lot of smart people have thought of this before us and yet we’re still using it so it must be right” has already been shown in said sequences to be biased.
Notice that you’ve also completely ignored my main point and built a massive, chain-woven strawman painted black standing in the middle of the highway. The primary argument of my comment is that it is not the science which is entirely wrong, but the way the elements of the system fail to even acknowledge that there is something better they could be doing to select employees. Namely, employers being stupid. I back this up very weakly with anecdotal, statistically-insignificant and underpowered “evidence”. Is there any more convenient a world you would wish for?
And here I was hoping that someone would rebuild my argument in stronger form before giving me reason to reconsider by showing that stronger argument wrong.
Right now, I have weak evidence (apparent lack of rational decision-making regarding employee selection on the part of employers) that the system is insane, yet strong evidence that it is at least not entirely sane in all situations. Conversely, there is no evidence suggesting to me that the system is “Sane”, and every other variable that I suspect is correlated to this system’s sanity shows indirect evidence towards insanity (examples in politics and religion come to mind most immediately, followed by various forms of warfare, systemic abuse and wilful neglect).
What’s more, the system being sane is, in my opinion, only trivially relevant if it remains inefficient and sub-optimal due to lack of awareness of key variables that are, in hindsight, absolutely crucial and would be the first thing I go for. Naturally, the cost of learning this missing data is unknown at present, its deviation range being too large for me to even make a good educated guess.
Doubly pointed out! Doubly, no evidence needed, just pointing it out.
You have not cited evidence that it is insane. We now have you citing Grognor, who claims Wedrifid thinks it is insane. So the font of pure epistemic truth is a throwaway line by noted anonymous internet commenter wedrifid. I’ll be sure to let all the academics who have been scientifically studying employee selection for decades know about your proclamation.
Better shut down the journals, ladies and gentlemen. The internet has proclaimed you insane. They figured it out from the comfort of their homes, using the power of pure reason and vague memories of reading Dilbert cartoons.
This comment probably got downvoted for unnecessary ranting and sarcasm, even though the point it makes is a valid one: a published study has more credibility than a speculation on a forum.
The point it makes is valid. It is, however, irrelevant and strawman to the point that I made to which it apparently attempts to respond: The science might be right, but the implemented system is potentially-insane, as shown by anecdotal evidence, because it seems to us that the agents of the system do not apply the science and knowledge in question whether it’s correct or not.
In fact, the agents appear to completely ignore the system’s potential rules and instead rely on the Universal Theory of Magic. Whether the study is correct or not, whether it is informative or not, whether it is biased or not, whether it is useful or not… is all completely ignored by the agents of the system, by my observations.
...
Even “anecdotal” evidence is sufficient for a posterior to become P(There Cannot Ever Be A Case Where X | Anecdote of X) < 1.
If you read carefully, you’ll notice that I wrote potentially-insane. Not “It Must Be Insane Because [Insert Anecdote X]”.
If I’m wrong, please point to me where I’ve misinterpreted / misread Bayes’ Theorem on this. I’d really like to get rid of this irrational manner of thought ASAP.
For the sake of Nitpick, I’ll first argue that I neither ever read Dilbert cartoons nor ever used such a thing as “pure reason” to my knowledge nor wrote any of this from within or benefiting-of-the-comfort-of my own home. However, since I’m just pointing this out, you should, if you persist in this course of argumentation, completely discard what I just said and assume that I did somehow.
The reason I did not present factual evidence, for my part, is that I considered it unnecessary on the prior that it be unlikely that someone who has read Eliezer’s Core sequences (and reflected while doing so) would disagree, if only upon the notion that any prior in favor of “a lot of smart people have thought of this before us and yet we’re still using it so it must be right” has already been shown in said sequences to be biased.
Notice that you’ve also completely ignored my main point and built a massive, chain-woven strawman painted black standing in the middle of the highway. The primary argument of my comment is that it is not the science which is entirely wrong, but the way the elements of the system fail to even acknowledge that there is something better they could be doing to select employees. Namely, employers being stupid. I back this up very weakly with anecdotal, statistically-insignificant and underpowered “evidence”. Is there any more convenient a world you would wish for?
And here I was hoping that someone would rebuild my argument in stronger form before giving me reason to reconsider by showing that stronger argument wrong.
Right now, I have weak evidence (apparent lack of rational decision-making regarding employee selection on the part of employers) that the system is insane, yet strong evidence that it is at least not entirely sane in all situations. Conversely, there is no evidence suggesting to me that the system is “Sane”, and every other variable that I suspect is correlated to this system’s sanity shows indirect evidence towards insanity (examples in politics and religion come to mind most immediately, followed by various forms of warfare, systemic abuse and wilful neglect).
What’s more, the system being sane is, in my opinion, only trivially relevant if it remains inefficient and sub-optimal due to lack of awareness of key variables that are, in hindsight, absolutely crucial and would be the first thing I go for. Naturally, the cost of learning this missing data is unknown at present, its deviation range being too large for me to even make a good educated guess.