It’s certainly not the most efficient market (e.g. there’s been no update in the past few days which is clearly wrong), but I think it would be more a distraction than it’s worth. Maybe after my apartment closes I can look into such things more seriously.
Any reason why not use your reasoning and expertise to put skin in the game? Polymarket has a couple of markets such as this one:
https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-more-than-100000-new-daily-covid-19-cases-before-january-1
It’s certainly not the most efficient market (e.g. there’s been no update in the past few days which is clearly wrong), but I think it would be more a distraction than it’s worth. Maybe after my apartment closes I can look into such things more seriously.