Between chapter 80 and 81, here’s my analysis. I can think of seven broad possibilities;
1.) Do nothing 2.) Attack publicly 2b.) Attack publicly in disguise 3.) Stealth attack 4.) Retreat and regroup 5.) Change the board 6.) Deus Ex Machina
1.) Do nothing; I list this simply because people often forget that inaction may be the best possible action.
Here, that doesn’t seem to be the case.
On the other hand, once you realize that sacrifice is necessary, why not give in to the dark side?
What’s one muggleborn more or less?
With proper obliviation Harry can literally forget about Hermione.
Plus, the dark side has tasty Hufflepuffs. And cookies.
2.) Attack publicly. While romantic, this puts Harry into a massive, wasteful, battle with basically all of wizarding Britton. He’s good, but realistically, he’d lose. Blackmailing the council publicly seems equally pointless.
Even if they gave in, it would be disastrous in the long run.
On the plus side, this is by far the most dramatic possibility. It’s not hard to imagine Harry laying waste to the Dementors essentially freeing all the prisoners, and throwing the wizarding world into complete and utter chaos.
2b.) Attack publicly in disguise.
Basically, put on a mask and break Hermione out of custody. Again, several possible ways to do it, but all with the significant drawback of making Hermione a wanted fugitive.
3.) Stealth attack. Harry and Quirrell almost succeeded in getting Bellatrix out without any help and without anyone knowing. With the order and the aurors attempting it, it wouldn’t be unimaginable that they could remove Hermione without anyone finding out.
On the minus side, Hermione would have to become a non-entity for 10 years, and they’d have to sneak her back in.
On the plus side, the comedic potential is enormous. Almost every major character could reasonably have a motive to sneak Hermione out, even the evil ones. Massive Gambit Pileup ensues.
4.) Retreat and regroup
The bad part of this is Hemione will be in Azkaban for some amount of time.
The good part is that it doesn’t result in Harry being at war with magical Britton before he’s ready.
This probably isn’t as bad as it first seems.
Many will be outraged by the decision to send a 12 year old girl to Azkaban, including, I bet, Draco Malfoy.
Now that the court room acting is over, “Draco” can argue for leniency, and Lucious can soften his heart over the
plight of so young a girl who was clearly unaware of the severity of her crime,
and blah blah blah. Lucious wants Hermione away from his son, discredited, and wants to stir up the
blood purists. All that is accomplished if Hermione is locked up in, say, Nurmengard, and his son vows to stay away from her.
Add in a bad publicity campaign smearing the wizingamot “Malfoy says 12 year old girls should
be tortured in Azkaban”.
Harry might even be allowed to visit and banish a few dementors, rather than having to do it clandestinely
5.) Change the board.
Determine who really cast the blood chilling charm.
Find out who killed Narcissa Malfoy, and give them up.
Or the dark path—find someone and give them up as Dracro’s assailant/Narcissa’s killer,
without considering their actual guilt. (Harry could put his minion Lesath Lestrange to good use.)
Find something else that Malfoy wants, like say, the philosopher’s stone, and give it to him.
Become god.
All good things to work on, but their timing is not under control, which means
this really is a variation of one of the other options with extra work added.
6.) Deus Ex Machina.
The author could make anything happen. While it might be that only the author can save them now,
it’s not something I’d expect the characters to plan for. And I for one would feel cheated if
that was the final solution.
Chapter 38: Lucius Malfoy claims that he was under an Imperius curse cast by Lord Voldemort. In canon, that claim was made by many powerful pureblood lords.
Chapter 26: Freeing someone from an Imperius curse by killing the caster of that curse creates a debt
Chapter 4: Bounties payable to the killer of Lord Voldemort could be delivered to Harry Potter.
Conclusion: Harry Potter is owed a blood debt by a number of the lords of the Wizengamot, which might be large enough that he could call it in and save Hermione. Even if it is just Lucius who owes him this debt, it could be enough.
Comments: Law of Conservation of Detail leans towards these facts being used, feels very desperate and Harry like, allows Hermione to come back to Hogwarts as a student.
In canon, that claim was made by many powerful pureblood lords.
Sorry? In canon, many powerful pureblood lords claimed to have killed Voldemort?...
Ah. You mean they claimed to be Imperiused. I’m obscurely disappointed. For a moment I imagined a coalition of Rational Pureblood Lords going around saying “it’s ridiculous to believe a baby survived the Killing Curse and killed the Dark Lord, really we ambushed him and left the burned husk of his body”.
To call in favors he never earned for something he had no conscious control over to subvert the political process of a nation qualifies as at least a little bit dark. I think that it wasn’t considered because Harry doesn’t think of himself as being the one who killed the Dark Lord regularly, and he doesn’t know that much about how debts in Magical Britain work. Only once he fully slipped into his Dark Side and became willing to do anything did he see that he could call in these debts.
I don’t believe that Dumbledore would think of subverting the political process in that fashion. That things follow a “good process” seems to be very important to Dumbledore, even when it results in bad ends. That is the most charitable interpretation, and I believe it to be possible.
Hermoine is still on the hook in the eyes of Draco and everyone for murder. I believe the story demands a fully vindicated Hermoine to continue, which is why I think Harry will frame Lord Jugson for the false memory charms on Draco and Hermoine. I go into further detail on this elsewhere, just check my comment history.
What False Memory Charm on Draco? I thought the current leading theory was that Hermione was GHD Attacked, FMC’d, then later on (after the attack?) Obliviated of the FMC. I don’t see how Draco needed to be messed with at all.
This would be if they were stunned immediately on entering the trophy room, like Harry said we don’t even know if a duel took place. Granted he could have just waited until after the duel and stunned Draco from behind, both would look the same to us.
Now that I think about it I actually like your way better, cloak and hat is there invisibly and makes sure Draco wins the duel, then stuns Draco while he is leaving. Less work to do with the False Memory charms, less work to do with tampering the wands, and less chance of messing up on evidence since an actual duel was fought.
I don’t understand what you mean. Harry believes she was FMC’d into obsessing over Draco and believing he was plotting to kill her. That’s quite sufficient to drive her to murder, without it actually being her fault.
A big deal has been made about Hermione’s innocence; i.e. Harry’s extensive thoughts on the Milgram experiment after Azkaban. The implication seems to me to be that no, that is definitively NOT sufficient to drive her to murder; in fact, nothing would be sufficient to drive her to murder.
He also believes that performing the Blood-Cooling Charm was a false memory. (At least that’s how I understand the following quotes from ch. 79.) I’ll admit however, that the evidence is not as clear as I thought, when I wrote the previous comment.
“Draco didn’t do anything, Hermione didn’t do anything, they were both False-Memory-Charmed!” Harry Potter’s voice had been rising on the last words. “How is that not BLOODY OBVIOUS?”
[…]
“Ah!” Harry said suddenly. “I get it now. The first False Memory Charm was cast on Hermione after Professor Snape yelled at her, and showed, say, Draco and Professor Snape plotting to kill her. Then last night that False Memory was removed by Obliviation, leaving behind the memories of her obsessing about Draco for no apparent reason, at the same time she and Draco were given false memories of the duel.”
Oh, you’re right, I misremembered Harry’s proposed scenario in the second quote.
Yeah, on balance I think that the duel actually happened and Harry’s suggested second round of FMCs is unnecessary- that just comes down to Harry not being willing to believe that Hermione is capable of cold-blooded (ha) murder, even in that state of mind.
What makes you sure that Hermione didn’t stun and Blood-Chill Draco herself?
If by “herself” we mean without being Imperiused, Confunded, Dark-ritualed or otherwise having her mind directly messed with, it’s because we’ve been inside Hermione’s mind enough to know that she wouldn’t murder a classmate.
Maybe we have different standards, but the Groundhog Day Attack and (at least) one False Memory Charm is quite enough mind-messing for me to believe she did it.
ETA: just to make it perfectly clear, I don’t think this value of “she did it” is the sort that should require her to be held liable in a criminal trial. I just meant that the Stunner and Blood-Chilling Charm came out of Hermione’s wand while she was holding it.
I still can’t figure out whether you’re excluding the Imperius.
Miss Granger would remember the Imperius. Obliviation cannot be detected by any known means, but only a Professor could have cast that spell upon a student without alarm from the Hogwarts wards
‘She was Imperiused and then Obliviated’ looks like the likeliest hypothesis right now.
I think the idea is that with just an Imperius and an Obliviation, she wouldn’t remember herself deciding to cast the Blood-Chilling charm—she might remember doing it, but not remember deciding to do it, which would be difference enough to be noted by the Veritaserum and/or Legimancer.
So you’d need the False-Memory-Charm on top of that, and once you have the False-Memory-Charm you don’t actually need to complicate this further with an Imperius and Obliviation, it suffices by itself.
If that were true, it’d be really easy to detect an Imperius by examining the subject’s memories… The subject wouldn’t remember deciding to do anything the Imperius made them do. [Test Foo]
Instead, McGonagall’s statement implies that the best way to figure out whether the subject was Imperiused is to see if they remember being Imperiused, even with all the information that would allow you to perform Test Foo.
Then again, McGonagall’s speaking outside her area of expertise.
If that were true, it’d be really easy to detect an Imperius by examining the subject’s memories...
Lucius is an Occlumens, and lesser Death Eaters might self-obliviate whole weeks/months of their lives and then claim that they were both Imperiused and obliviated.
Instead, McGonagall’s statement implies that the best way to figure out whether the subject was Imperiused is to see if they remember being Imperiused, even with all the information that would allow you to perform Test Foo.
I suppose that throughout the duration of Imperius its victim may be thinking to himself “Damn this Imperius which is making my body do things that I don’t want to do”, so one wouldn’t need to obliviate just the moment of the Imperius, but the whole sequence of events. Which would be counterproductive in Hermione’s case as her own memories is the chief incriminating factor.
but the Groundhog Day Attack and (at least) one False Memory Charm is quite enough mind-messing for me to believe she did it.
I don’t think a False Memory and whatever persuasive words were used in the Groundhog Day attack would have sufficed for her to cold-bloodledly murder a 11-year old classmate, even if she had seen him openly declare a desire to rape Hannah Abbot. (she might have hot-bloodedly murder him then, but not cold-bloodedly so).
I think you underestimate the power of the GHD. If Hermione really believed she had to kill Draco or he will, for example, murder every student in Hogwarts the next day, I’m pretty sure she would cold-bloodedly kill him.
Miss Granger would remember the Imperius. Obliviation cannot be detected by any known means, but only a Professor could have cast that spell upon a student without alarm from the Hogwarts wards
‘She was Imperiused and then Obliviated’ seems to be the likeliest hypothesis.
I don’t think that Hermione needs to be fully vindicated for the story to go on. Having her be ruled innocent by the Wizengamot, possibly with a later recantation by Lucius Malfoy once he calms down, would have her be distrusted by her classmates somewhat. This could fit in nicely with her character development and her fear of becoming dark.
Eliezer’s clue sounds to me as though there’s enough people in the Wizingamot whose interests and/or desires aren’t served by convicting Hermione, and it’s possible to identify them and change their minds once Harry stops thinking of the Wizingamot as a single inimical force. The details are left as an exercise for the student.
It would appear that you have not yet learned how to lose. :)
The best, easiest solution available to Harry is to confess.
Even without a wand, de doesn’t fear dementors, and dementors fear him. Neither Dumbledore nor Quirrel would be willing to let Harry rot in Azkaban, while they would not break Hermione out.
(I cannot claim credit for this, it was posted on xkcd forums.)
Everyone’s been posting this, and they all don’t explain why Lucius, with Hermione’s sentence almost a done deal, would accept an Occlumens’s testimony.
No, he doesn’t want to. He’s frothing for Hermione’s blood, the blood of the one who tried to murder the only precious thing in the world to him.
How could Eliezer make this clearer, write in a line like ‘Drool dripped from Lucius’s fangs as his eyes rolled up ecstatically, contemplating that filthy mudblood’s miserable death in Azkaban, a fate far too good for that murderess who tried to end the luminous life of his Draco! Death! Death to Hermione!’
Any option that doesn’t allow Hermoine to be cleared of all charges to go back to school is not an option
The hidden 7th Option.
Use a false memory charm on a student to generate testimony framing someone else as false memory charming Draco and Hermoine. My favorite path right now it to set up Lord Jugson using the time turner, invisibility cloak, tampering with the wands, and a False memory charm on a student. I go into more detail here http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/axe/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/64am
Use a false memory charm on a student to generate testimony framing someone else as false memory charming Draco and Hermoine.
That would fall under 5. ”… find someone and give them up as Dracro’s assailant/Narcissa’s killer, without considering their actual guilt.” And like any option that falls under that broad category, we don’t know how long it would take to carry out, so it’s more “Let Hermione go to Azkaban while framing Lord Jugson.” (action 4 plus 5)
If I were going for the safe, boring route, I’d pick 4 combined with trying to determine (and prove) the actually guilty party who false memory charmed Hermione. There aren’t very many people who;
Are Hogwarts professors (i.e. someone who could cast the memory charm without triggering alarm).
Between chapter 80 and 81, here’s my analysis. I can think of seven broad possibilities;
1.) Do nothing
2.) Attack publicly
2b.) Attack publicly in disguise
3.) Stealth attack
4.) Retreat and regroup
5.) Change the board
6.) Deus Ex Machina
1.) Do nothing; I list this simply because people often forget that inaction may be the best possible action. Here, that doesn’t seem to be the case. On the other hand, once you realize that sacrifice is necessary, why not give in to the dark side? What’s one muggleborn more or less? With proper obliviation Harry can literally forget about Hermione. Plus, the dark side has tasty Hufflepuffs. And cookies.
2.) Attack publicly.
While romantic, this puts Harry into a massive, wasteful, battle with basically all of wizarding Britton.
He’s good, but realistically, he’d lose.
Blackmailing the council publicly seems equally pointless. Even if they gave in, it would be disastrous in the long run. On the plus side, this is by far the most dramatic possibility. It’s not hard to imagine Harry laying waste to the Dementors essentially freeing all the prisoners, and throwing the wizarding world into complete and utter chaos.
2b.) Attack publicly in disguise. Basically, put on a mask and break Hermione out of custody. Again, several possible ways to do it, but all with the significant drawback of making Hermione a wanted fugitive.
3.) Stealth attack. Harry and Quirrell almost succeeded in getting Bellatrix out without any help and without anyone knowing. With the order and the aurors attempting it, it wouldn’t be unimaginable that they could remove Hermione without anyone finding out. On the minus side, Hermione would have to become a non-entity for 10 years, and they’d have to sneak her back in. On the plus side, the comedic potential is enormous. Almost every major character could reasonably have a motive to sneak Hermione out, even the evil ones. Massive Gambit Pileup ensues.
4.) Retreat and regroup The bad part of this is Hemione will be in Azkaban for some amount of time. The good part is that it doesn’t result in Harry being at war with magical Britton before he’s ready. This probably isn’t as bad as it first seems. Many will be outraged by the decision to send a 12 year old girl to Azkaban, including, I bet, Draco Malfoy. Now that the court room acting is over, “Draco” can argue for leniency, and Lucious can soften his heart over the plight of so young a girl who was clearly unaware of the severity of her crime, and blah blah blah. Lucious wants Hermione away from his son, discredited, and wants to stir up the blood purists. All that is accomplished if Hermione is locked up in, say, Nurmengard, and his son vows to stay away from her. Add in a bad publicity campaign smearing the wizingamot “Malfoy says 12 year old girls should be tortured in Azkaban”. Harry might even be allowed to visit and banish a few dementors, rather than having to do it clandestinely
5.) Change the board. Determine who really cast the blood chilling charm. Find out who killed Narcissa Malfoy, and give them up. Or the dark path—find someone and give them up as Dracro’s assailant/Narcissa’s killer, without considering their actual guilt. (Harry could put his minion Lesath Lestrange to good use.) Find something else that Malfoy wants, like say, the philosopher’s stone, and give it to him. Become god. All good things to work on, but their timing is not under control, which means this really is a variation of one of the other options with extra work added.
6.) Deus Ex Machina. The author could make anything happen. While it might be that only the author can save them now, it’s not something I’d expect the characters to plan for. And I for one would feel cheated if that was the final solution.
Chapter 38: Lucius Malfoy claims that he was under an Imperius curse cast by Lord Voldemort. In canon, that claim was made by many powerful pureblood lords.
Chapter 26: Freeing someone from an Imperius curse by killing the caster of that curse creates a debt
Chapter 4: Bounties payable to the killer of Lord Voldemort could be delivered to Harry Potter.
Conclusion: Harry Potter is owed a blood debt by a number of the lords of the Wizengamot, which might be large enough that he could call it in and save Hermione. Even if it is just Lucius who owes him this debt, it could be enough.
Comments: Law of Conservation of Detail leans towards these facts being used, feels very desperate and Harry like, allows Hermione to come back to Hogwarts as a student.
Sorry? In canon, many powerful pureblood lords claimed to have killed Voldemort?...
Ah. You mean they claimed to be Imperiused. I’m obscurely disappointed. For a moment I imagined a coalition of Rational Pureblood Lords going around saying “it’s ridiculous to believe a baby survived the Killing Curse and killed the Dark Lord, really we ambushed him and left the burned husk of his body”.
I edited my comment to correct that.
That would be brilliant. I wish.
You were right. Congratulations, good sir or madam.
What’s Dark about this plan? And why wasn’t it considered at the pre-trial conference at Hogwarts?
Actually, “because Dumbledore doesn’t want Harry to do that” answers my second question, but raises its own questions.
To call in favors he never earned for something he had no conscious control over to subvert the political process of a nation qualifies as at least a little bit dark. I think that it wasn’t considered because Harry doesn’t think of himself as being the one who killed the Dark Lord regularly, and he doesn’t know that much about how debts in Magical Britain work. Only once he fully slipped into his Dark Side and became willing to do anything did he see that he could call in these debts.
I don’t believe that Dumbledore would think of subverting the political process in that fashion. That things follow a “good process” seems to be very important to Dumbledore, even when it results in bad ends. That is the most charitable interpretation, and I believe it to be possible.
Hermoine is still on the hook in the eyes of Draco and everyone for murder. I believe the story demands a fully vindicated Hermoine to continue, which is why I think Harry will frame Lord Jugson for the false memory charms on Draco and Hermoine. I go into further detail on this elsewhere, just check my comment history.
What False Memory Charm on Draco? I thought the current leading theory was that Hermione was GHD Attacked, FMC’d, then later on (after the attack?) Obliviated of the FMC. I don’t see how Draco needed to be messed with at all.
This would be if they were stunned immediately on entering the trophy room, like Harry said we don’t even know if a duel took place. Granted he could have just waited until after the duel and stunned Draco from behind, both would look the same to us.
Now that I think about it I actually like your way better, cloak and hat is there invisibly and makes sure Draco wins the duel, then stuns Draco while he is leaving. Less work to do with the False Memory charms, less work to do with tampering the wands, and less chance of messing up on evidence since an actual duel was fought.
What makes you sure that Hermione didn’t stun and Blood-Chill Draco herself?
If it were, one could argue that Harry’s certainty re: the false-memory charm deliberately fools the reader.
I don’t understand what you mean. Harry believes she was FMC’d into obsessing over Draco and believing he was plotting to kill her. That’s quite sufficient to drive her to murder, without it actually being her fault.
A big deal has been made about Hermione’s innocence; i.e. Harry’s extensive thoughts on the Milgram experiment after Azkaban. The implication seems to me to be that no, that is definitively NOT sufficient to drive her to murder; in fact, nothing would be sufficient to drive her to murder.
I guess Harry is sure of this fact due to his infallible power to know the hearts of men (and little girls).
I think Harry’s wrong about that, is what I’m saying.
He also believes that performing the Blood-Cooling Charm was a false memory. (At least that’s how I understand the following quotes from ch. 79.) I’ll admit however, that the evidence is not as clear as I thought, when I wrote the previous comment.
[…]
Oh, you’re right, I misremembered Harry’s proposed scenario in the second quote.
Yeah, on balance I think that the duel actually happened and Harry’s suggested second round of FMCs is unnecessary- that just comes down to Harry not being willing to believe that Hermione is capable of cold-blooded (ha) murder, even in that state of mind.
To be honest, I doubt she is.
If by “herself” we mean without being Imperiused, Confunded, Dark-ritualed or otherwise having her mind directly messed with, it’s because we’ve been inside Hermione’s mind enough to know that she wouldn’t murder a classmate.
Human beings have characteristics just as inanimate objects do.
Maybe we have different standards, but the Groundhog Day Attack and (at least) one False Memory Charm is quite enough mind-messing for me to believe she did it.
ETA: just to make it perfectly clear, I don’t think this value of “she did it” is the sort that should require her to be held liable in a criminal trial. I just meant that the Stunner and Blood-Chilling Charm came out of Hermione’s wand while she was holding it.
I still can’t figure out whether you’re excluding the Imperius.
chapter 79
‘She was Imperiused and then Obliviated’ looks like the likeliest hypothesis right now.
I think the idea is that with just an Imperius and an Obliviation, she wouldn’t remember herself deciding to cast the Blood-Chilling charm—she might remember doing it, but not remember deciding to do it, which would be difference enough to be noted by the Veritaserum and/or Legimancer.
So you’d need the False-Memory-Charm on top of that, and once you have the False-Memory-Charm you don’t actually need to complicate this further with an Imperius and Obliviation, it suffices by itself.
If that were true, it’d be really easy to detect an Imperius by examining the subject’s memories… The subject wouldn’t remember deciding to do anything the Imperius made them do. [Test Foo]
Instead, McGonagall’s statement implies that the best way to figure out whether the subject was Imperiused is to see if they remember being Imperiused, even with all the information that would allow you to perform Test Foo.
Then again, McGonagall’s speaking outside her area of expertise.
Lucius is an Occlumens, and lesser Death Eaters might self-obliviate whole weeks/months of their lives and then claim that they were both Imperiused and obliviated.
I suppose that throughout the duration of Imperius its victim may be thinking to himself “Damn this Imperius which is making my body do things that I don’t want to do”, so one wouldn’t need to obliviate just the moment of the Imperius, but the whole sequence of events. Which would be counterproductive in Hermione’s case as her own memories is the chief incriminating factor.
I don’t think a False Memory and whatever persuasive words were used in the Groundhog Day attack would have sufficed for her to cold-bloodledly murder a 11-year old classmate, even if she had seen him openly declare a desire to rape Hannah Abbot. (she might have hot-bloodedly murder him then, but not cold-bloodedly so).
I think you underestimate the power of the GHD. If Hermione really believed she had to kill Draco or he will, for example, murder every student in Hogwarts the next day, I’m pretty sure she would cold-bloodedly kill him.
Okay. How about we take up this discussion again in, let’s say, thirty-five hours?
Sure. :-)
‘She was Imperiused and then Obliviated’ seems to be the likeliest hypothesis.
I don’t think that Hermione needs to be fully vindicated for the story to go on. Having her be ruled innocent by the Wizengamot, possibly with a later recantation by Lucius Malfoy once he calms down, would have her be distrusted by her classmates somewhat. This could fit in nicely with her character development and her fear of becoming dark.
Oh wow, I completely forgot about the bounties. My gold’s on this theory now.
Eliezer’s clue sounds to me as though there’s enough people in the Wizingamot whose interests and/or desires aren’t served by convicting Hermione, and it’s possible to identify them and change their minds once Harry stops thinking of the Wizingamot as a single inimical force. The details are left as an exercise for the student.
This seems most consistent with the quote about “Harry’s a PC and the Wizengamot are wallpaper; this was about to change.”
It would appear that you have not yet learned how to lose. :)
The best, easiest solution available to Harry is to confess.
Even without a wand, de doesn’t fear dementors, and dementors fear him. Neither Dumbledore nor Quirrel would be willing to let Harry rot in Azkaban, while they would not break Hermione out.
(I cannot claim credit for this, it was posted on xkcd forums.)
Everyone’s been posting this, and they all don’t explain why Lucius, with Hermione’s sentence almost a done deal, would accept an Occlumens’s testimony.
Because he wants to. Putting harry in Azkaban would be no minor victory.
No, he doesn’t want to. He’s frothing for Hermione’s blood, the blood of the one who tried to murder the only precious thing in the world to him.
How could Eliezer make this clearer, write in a line like ‘Drool dripped from Lucius’s fangs as his eyes rolled up ecstatically, contemplating that filthy mudblood’s miserable death in Azkaban, a fate far too good for that murderess who tried to end the luminous life of his Draco! Death! Death to Hermione!’
Is it bad that I totally want this line to appear in the story now?
Ooh.
Any option that doesn’t allow Hermoine to be cleared of all charges to go back to school is not an option
The hidden 7th Option.
Use a false memory charm on a student to generate testimony framing someone else as false memory charming Draco and Hermoine. My favorite path right now it to set up Lord Jugson using the time turner, invisibility cloak, tampering with the wands, and a False memory charm on a student. I go into more detail here http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/axe/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/64am
That would fall under 5. ”… find someone and give them up as Dracro’s assailant/Narcissa’s killer, without considering their actual guilt.” And like any option that falls under that broad category, we don’t know how long it would take to carry out, so it’s more “Let Hermione go to Azkaban while framing Lord Jugson.” (action 4 plus 5)
If I were going for the safe, boring route, I’d pick 4 combined with trying to determine (and prove) the actually guilty party who false memory charmed Hermione. There aren’t very many people who;
Are Hogwarts professors (i.e. someone who could cast the memory charm without triggering alarm).
Have a motive.