Daniel almost surely doesn’t think growth will be constant. (Presumably he has a model similar to the one here.)
That makes senes. Daniel, my terms are flexible. Just let me know what is your median fraction for 2027, and we can go from there.
I assume he also thinks that by the time energy production is >10x higher, the world has generally been radically transformed by AI.
Right. I think the bet is roughly neutral with respect to monetary gains under Daniel’s view, but Daniel may want to go ahead despite that to show that he really endorses his views. Not taking the bet may suggest Daniel is worried about losing 10 k€ in a world where 10 k€ is still relevant.
I’m not sure I understand. You and I, as far as I know, have the same beliefs about world energy consumption in 2027, at least on our median timelines. I think it could be higher, but only if AGI timelines are a lot shorter than I think and takeoff is a lot faster than I think. And in those worlds we probably won’t be around to resolve the bet in 2027, nor would I care much about winning that bet anyway. (Money post-singularity will be much less valuable to me than money before the singularity)
Thanks, Ryan.
That makes senes. Daniel, my terms are flexible. Just let me know what is your median fraction for 2027, and we can go from there.
Right. I think the bet is roughly neutral with respect to monetary gains under Daniel’s view, but Daniel may want to go ahead despite that to show that he really endorses his views. Not taking the bet may suggest Daniel is worried about losing 10 k€ in a world where 10 k€ is still relevant.
I’m not sure I understand. You and I, as far as I know, have the same beliefs about world energy consumption in 2027, at least on our median timelines. I think it could be higher, but only if AGI timelines are a lot shorter than I think and takeoff is a lot faster than I think. And in those worlds we probably won’t be around to resolve the bet in 2027, nor would I care much about winning that bet anyway. (Money post-singularity will be much less valuable to me than money before the singularity)