I still haven’t figured out what you have against Bayesian epistemology. It’s not like this is some sort of LW invention—it’s pretty standard in a lot of philosophical and scientific circles, and I’ve seen plenty of philosophers and scientists who call themselves Bayesians.
Solomonoff induction is one of those ideas that keeps circulating here, for reasons that escape me.
My understanding is that Solomonoff induction is usually appealed to as one of the more promising candidates for a formalization of Bayesian epistemology that uses objective and specifically Occamian priors. I haven’t heard Solomonoff promoted as much outside LW, but other similar proposals do get thrown around by a lot of philosophers.
Bayesian methods didn’t save Jaynes from being terminally confused about causality and the Bell inequalities.
Of course Bayesianism isn’t a cure-all by itself, and I don’t think that’s controversial. It’s just that it seems useful in many fundamental issues of epistemology. But in any given domain outside of epistemology (such as causation or quantum mechanics), domain-relevant expertise is almost certainly more important. The question is more whether domain expertise plus Bayesianism is at all helpful, and I’d imagine it depends on the specific field. Certainly for fundamental physics it appears that Bayesianism is often viewed as at least somewhat useful (based on the conference linked by the OP and by a lot of other things I’ve seen quoted from professional physicists).
I don’t have any problem with Bayesian epistemology at all. You can have whatever epistemology you want.
What I do have a problem with is this “LW myopia” where people here think they have something important to tell to people like Ed Witten about how people like Ed Witten should be doing their business. This is basically insane, to me. This is strong evidence that the type of culture that gets produced here isn’t particularly sanity producing.
Solomonoff induction is useless to know about for anyone who has real work to do (let’s say with actual data, like physicists). What would people do with it?
In many cases I’d agree it’s pretty crazy, especially if you’re trying to go up against top scientists.
On the other hand, I’ve seen plenty of scientists and philosophers claim that their peers (or they themselves) could benefit from learning more about things like cognitive biases, statistics fallacies, philosophy of science, etc. I’ve even seen experts claim that a lot of their peers make elementary mistakes in these areas. So it’s not that crazy to think that by studying these subjects you can have some advantages over some scientists, at least in some respects.
Of course that doesn’t mean you can be sure that you have the advantage. As I said, probably in most cases domain expertise is more important.
Absolutely agree it is important for scientists to know about cognitive biases. Francis Bacon, the father of the empirical method, explicitly used cognitive biases (he called them “idols,” and even classified them) as a justification for why the method was needed.
I always said that Francis Bacon should be LW’s patron saint.
So it sounds like you’re only disagreeing with the OP in degree. You agree with the OP that a lot of scientists should be learning more about cognitive biases, better statistics, epistemology, etc., just as we are trying to do on LW. You’re just pointing out (I think) that the “informed laymen” of LW should have some humility because (a) in many cases (esp. for top scientists?) the scientists have indeed learned lots of rationality-relevant subject matter, perhaps more than most of us on LW, (b) domain expertise is usually more important than generic rationality, and (c) top scientists are very well educated and very smart.
edit: Although I should say LW “trying to learn better statistics” is too generous. There is a lot more “arguing on the internet” and a lot less “reading” happening.
I still haven’t figured out what you have against Bayesian epistemology. It’s not like this is some sort of LW invention—it’s pretty standard in a lot of philosophical and scientific circles, and I’ve seen plenty of philosophers and scientists who call themselves Bayesians.
My understanding is that Solomonoff induction is usually appealed to as one of the more promising candidates for a formalization of Bayesian epistemology that uses objective and specifically Occamian priors. I haven’t heard Solomonoff promoted as much outside LW, but other similar proposals do get thrown around by a lot of philosophers.
Of course Bayesianism isn’t a cure-all by itself, and I don’t think that’s controversial. It’s just that it seems useful in many fundamental issues of epistemology. But in any given domain outside of epistemology (such as causation or quantum mechanics), domain-relevant expertise is almost certainly more important. The question is more whether domain expertise plus Bayesianism is at all helpful, and I’d imagine it depends on the specific field. Certainly for fundamental physics it appears that Bayesianism is often viewed as at least somewhat useful (based on the conference linked by the OP and by a lot of other things I’ve seen quoted from professional physicists).
I don’t have any problem with Bayesian epistemology at all. You can have whatever epistemology you want.
What I do have a problem with is this “LW myopia” where people here think they have something important to tell to people like Ed Witten about how people like Ed Witten should be doing their business. This is basically insane, to me. This is strong evidence that the type of culture that gets produced here isn’t particularly sanity producing.
Solomonoff induction is useless to know about for anyone who has real work to do (let’s say with actual data, like physicists). What would people do with it?
In many cases I’d agree it’s pretty crazy, especially if you’re trying to go up against top scientists.
On the other hand, I’ve seen plenty of scientists and philosophers claim that their peers (or they themselves) could benefit from learning more about things like cognitive biases, statistics fallacies, philosophy of science, etc. I’ve even seen experts claim that a lot of their peers make elementary mistakes in these areas. So it’s not that crazy to think that by studying these subjects you can have some advantages over some scientists, at least in some respects.
Of course that doesn’t mean you can be sure that you have the advantage. As I said, probably in most cases domain expertise is more important.
Absolutely agree it is important for scientists to know about cognitive biases. Francis Bacon, the father of the empirical method, explicitly used cognitive biases (he called them “idols,” and even classified them) as a justification for why the method was needed.
I always said that Francis Bacon should be LW’s patron saint.
So it sounds like you’re only disagreeing with the OP in degree. You agree with the OP that a lot of scientists should be learning more about cognitive biases, better statistics, epistemology, etc., just as we are trying to do on LW. You’re just pointing out (I think) that the “informed laymen” of LW should have some humility because (a) in many cases (esp. for top scientists?) the scientists have indeed learned lots of rationality-relevant subject matter, perhaps more than most of us on LW, (b) domain expertise is usually more important than generic rationality, and (c) top scientists are very well educated and very smart.
Is that correct?
Yup!
edit: Although I should say LW “trying to learn better statistics” is too generous. There is a lot more “arguing on the internet” and a lot less “reading” happening.
I nominate Carneades, the inventor of the idea of degrees of certainty.
Harry J.E. Potter did receive Bacon’s diary as a gift from his DADA teacher, after all.