In many cases I’d agree it’s pretty crazy, especially if you’re trying to go up against top scientists.
On the other hand, I’ve seen plenty of scientists and philosophers claim that their peers (or they themselves) could benefit from learning more about things like cognitive biases, statistics fallacies, philosophy of science, etc. I’ve even seen experts claim that a lot of their peers make elementary mistakes in these areas. So it’s not that crazy to think that by studying these subjects you can have some advantages over some scientists, at least in some respects.
Of course that doesn’t mean you can be sure that you have the advantage. As I said, probably in most cases domain expertise is more important.
Absolutely agree it is important for scientists to know about cognitive biases. Francis Bacon, the father of the empirical method, explicitly used cognitive biases (he called them “idols,” and even classified them) as a justification for why the method was needed.
I always said that Francis Bacon should be LW’s patron saint.
So it sounds like you’re only disagreeing with the OP in degree. You agree with the OP that a lot of scientists should be learning more about cognitive biases, better statistics, epistemology, etc., just as we are trying to do on LW. You’re just pointing out (I think) that the “informed laymen” of LW should have some humility because (a) in many cases (esp. for top scientists?) the scientists have indeed learned lots of rationality-relevant subject matter, perhaps more than most of us on LW, (b) domain expertise is usually more important than generic rationality, and (c) top scientists are very well educated and very smart.
edit: Although I should say LW “trying to learn better statistics” is too generous. There is a lot more “arguing on the internet” and a lot less “reading” happening.
In many cases I’d agree it’s pretty crazy, especially if you’re trying to go up against top scientists.
On the other hand, I’ve seen plenty of scientists and philosophers claim that their peers (or they themselves) could benefit from learning more about things like cognitive biases, statistics fallacies, philosophy of science, etc. I’ve even seen experts claim that a lot of their peers make elementary mistakes in these areas. So it’s not that crazy to think that by studying these subjects you can have some advantages over some scientists, at least in some respects.
Of course that doesn’t mean you can be sure that you have the advantage. As I said, probably in most cases domain expertise is more important.
Absolutely agree it is important for scientists to know about cognitive biases. Francis Bacon, the father of the empirical method, explicitly used cognitive biases (he called them “idols,” and even classified them) as a justification for why the method was needed.
I always said that Francis Bacon should be LW’s patron saint.
So it sounds like you’re only disagreeing with the OP in degree. You agree with the OP that a lot of scientists should be learning more about cognitive biases, better statistics, epistemology, etc., just as we are trying to do on LW. You’re just pointing out (I think) that the “informed laymen” of LW should have some humility because (a) in many cases (esp. for top scientists?) the scientists have indeed learned lots of rationality-relevant subject matter, perhaps more than most of us on LW, (b) domain expertise is usually more important than generic rationality, and (c) top scientists are very well educated and very smart.
Is that correct?
Yup!
edit: Although I should say LW “trying to learn better statistics” is too generous. There is a lot more “arguing on the internet” and a lot less “reading” happening.
I nominate Carneades, the inventor of the idea of degrees of certainty.
Harry J.E. Potter did receive Bacon’s diary as a gift from his DADA teacher, after all.