It looks like people can change their predictions after they initially submit them. Is this history recorded somewhere, or just the current distribution?
Is there an option to have people “lock in” their answer? (Maybe they can still edit/delete for a short time after they submit or before a cutoff date/time)
Is there a way to see in one place all the predictions I’ve submitted an answer to?
It looks like people can change their predictions after they initially submit them. Is this history recorded somewhere, or just the current distribution?
Is there an option to have people “lock in” their answer? (Maybe they can still edit/delete for a short time after they submit or before a cutoff date/time)
Not planning on supporting this on our end in the near future, but could be a cool feature down the line.
Is there a way to see in one place all the predictions I’ve submitted an answer to?
As of right now, not if you make the predictions via LW. You can view questions that you’ve submitted a prediction on via Elicit at https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.hasPredicted=true if you’re logged in, and we’re working on allowing for account linking so your LW predictions would show up in the same place.
The first version of account linking will be contacting someone at Ought then us manually running a script.
Edit: the first version of account linking is ready, email elifland@ought.org with your LW username and Elicit email and I can link them.
I am pretty sure Ought is keeping track of all of your predictions. But I don’t think there (yet) exists UI for seeing them, and also, we don’t yet have a way of connecting your LW account with your elicit account, which would be necessary to allow you to see the history of predictions you made on LW. The Elicit API currently only exposes uncancelled predictions you’ve made.
You can search for the question on elicit.org/binary and see the history of all predictions made! E.G. If you copy the question title in this post, and search by clicking Filter then pasting the title into “Question title contains,” you can find the question here.
Unless I’m off base it looks like you form four different predictions on the same question. That seems odd to me. I would expect a one prediction per person making a prediction—so later predictions would update rather than provide a new value along with the prior ones. It looks like you hold all four positions simultaneously. Also, if they are all considered current predictions then that might skew the average.
But maybe I am just not getting something about what’s going on. Have not really looked beyond the LW post and comments.
I see what you’re saying. This feature is designed to support tracking changes in predictions primarily over longer periods of time e.g. for forecasts with years between creation and resolution. (You can even download a csv of the forecast data to run analyses on it.)
It can get a bit noisy, like in this case, so we can think about how to address that.
It looks like people can change their predictions after they initially submit them. Is this history recorded somewhere, or just the current distribution?
Is there an option to have people “lock in” their answer? (Maybe they can still edit/delete for a short time after they submit or before a cutoff date/time)
Is there a way to see in one place all the predictions I’ve submitted an answer to?
We do store the history. You can view them by going https://elicit.org/binary then searching for the question, e.g. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050. Although as noted by Oli, we currently only display predictions that haven’t been withdrawn.
Not planning on supporting this on our end in the near future, but could be a cool feature down the line.
As of right now, not if you make the predictions via LW. You can view questions that you’ve submitted a prediction on via Elicit at https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.hasPredicted=true if you’re logged in, and we’re working on allowing for account linking so your LW predictions would show up in the same place.
The first version of account linking will be contacting someone at Ought then us manually running a script.
Edit: the first version of account linking is ready, email elifland@ought.org with your LW username and Elicit email and I can link them.
I am pretty sure Ought is keeping track of all of your predictions. But I don’t think there (yet) exists UI for seeing them, and also, we don’t yet have a way of connecting your LW account with your elicit account, which would be necessary to allow you to see the history of predictions you made on LW. The Elicit API currently only exposes uncancelled predictions you’ve made.
You can search for the question on elicit.org/binary and see the history of all predictions made! E.G. If you copy the question title in this post, and search by clicking Filter then pasting the title into “Question title contains,” you can find the question here.
Is it just me or do all those prediction assessments from jungofthewon point to a rather undesirable feature of the tool?
you mean because my predictions are noisy and you don’t want to see them in that list?
Unless I’m off base it looks like you form four different predictions on the same question. That seems odd to me. I would expect a one prediction per person making a prediction—so later predictions would update rather than provide a new value along with the prior ones. It looks like you hold all four positions simultaneously. Also, if they are all considered current predictions then that might skew the average.
But maybe I am just not getting something about what’s going on. Have not really looked beyond the LW post and comments.
I see what you’re saying. This feature is designed to support tracking changes in predictions primarily over longer periods of time e.g. for forecasts with years between creation and resolution. (You can even download a csv of the forecast data to run analyses on it.)
It can get a bit noisy, like in this case, so we can think about how to address that.