Unless I’m off base it looks like you form four different predictions on the same question. That seems odd to me. I would expect a one prediction per person making a prediction—so later predictions would update rather than provide a new value along with the prior ones. It looks like you hold all four positions simultaneously. Also, if they are all considered current predictions then that might skew the average.
But maybe I am just not getting something about what’s going on. Have not really looked beyond the LW post and comments.
I see what you’re saying. This feature is designed to support tracking changes in predictions primarily over longer periods of time e.g. for forecasts with years between creation and resolution. (You can even download a csv of the forecast data to run analyses on it.)
It can get a bit noisy, like in this case, so we can think about how to address that.
Unless I’m off base it looks like you form four different predictions on the same question. That seems odd to me. I would expect a one prediction per person making a prediction—so later predictions would update rather than provide a new value along with the prior ones. It looks like you hold all four positions simultaneously. Also, if they are all considered current predictions then that might skew the average.
But maybe I am just not getting something about what’s going on. Have not really looked beyond the LW post and comments.
I see what you’re saying. This feature is designed to support tracking changes in predictions primarily over longer periods of time e.g. for forecasts with years between creation and resolution. (You can even download a csv of the forecast data to run analyses on it.)
It can get a bit noisy, like in this case, so we can think about how to address that.