I don’t want to get into too much specifics. That said it sounds like we have somewhat similar views, I just am a bit more bullish for some reason.
I wonder if we should make some bets about what visible deployments will look like in, say, 2024? I take it you’ve read my story—wanna leave a comment sketching which parts you disagree with or think will take longer?
Basically, I don’t see chatbots being significantly more useful than today until they are already AGI and can teach themselves things like homological algebra, 1-2 years before the singularity. This is a combination of short timelines not giving time to polish them enough, and polishing them enough being sufficient to reach AGI.
OK. What counts as significantly more useful than today? Would you say e.g. that the stuff depicted in 2024-2026 in my story, generally won’t happen until 2030? Perhaps with a few exceptions?
I don’t want to get into too much specifics. That said it sounds like we have somewhat similar views, I just am a bit more bullish for some reason.
I wonder if we should make some bets about what visible deployments will look like in, say, 2024? I take it you’ve read my story—wanna leave a comment sketching which parts you disagree with or think will take longer?
Basically, I don’t see chatbots being significantly more useful than today until they are already AGI and can teach themselves things like homological algebra, 1-2 years before the singularity. This is a combination of short timelines not giving time to polish them enough, and polishing them enough being sufficient to reach AGI.
OK. What counts as significantly more useful than today? Would you say e.g. that the stuff depicted in 2024-2026 in my story, generally won’t happen until 2030? Perhaps with a few exceptions?