Not well enough to get more than one animal to survive, alas.
The one thing I did manage to improve my survival odds by doing was steering clear of the Tundra...even after the buff to Lichen (prior to which Tundra was mathematically impossible to survive) it seemed pretty likely that even a single non-trivial Tundra predator being submitted would inevitably wipe the whole region out. It looked like...rather a lot of people submitted distinctly non-trivial predators there.
Here’s our Brier scores for our predictions:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qhuACrtD0esgCqz8rQvYcZOC0I1y1l66/edit#gid=225287990
The defenseless creature result really surprised most of us. Well done, aphyer, you knew what was up.
I’m giving myself credit for a much better score than that. ;)
Edit: as per elspood’s simulations, I am revoking all of my supposed credit.
Not well enough to get more than one animal to survive, alas.
The one thing I did manage to improve my survival odds by doing was steering clear of the Tundra...even after the buff to Lichen (prior to which Tundra was mathematically impossible to survive) it seemed pretty likely that even a single non-trivial Tundra predator being submitted would inevitably wipe the whole region out. It looked like...rather a lot of people submitted distinctly non-trivial predators there.