Soonbegon didn’t “survive to equilibrium” despite being called a winner, so I probably shouldn’t count it.
Will at least 30 species survive to equilibrium?
False. You could make it true by deciding to count species that won in multiple biomes once for each biome they won in, but I’m not going to do that.
Will at least one creature exist in each biome at equilibrium?
False. Tundra has no creatures at equilibrium. Shore has no permanent residents, but it definitely looks like the other biomes supply it enough for it to always have creatures.
Will a species with no armor, weapons, or speed survive to equilibrium?
True. Three defenseless seed-eating species survived.
Will a species with an energy value of 20 or greater survive to equilibrium?
True. Booyahs just barely makes it: 2 for attack, 10 for speed, 6 for carrion, 2 for heat resistance, 0.1 base rate, total of 20.1. No other surviving species is that expensive. Soonbegon also costs 20.1.
Will a species with 1 or more armor survive to equilibrium?
True. When I was theorycrafting I thought armor was trash, but I have been proven very wrong. Armor is the cheapest way to be invincible, and every surviving species has either 0 or 10 armor.
Will a species with venom survive to equilibrium?
True. Venomoth and Venomous Snark had venom and survived. (Soonbegon also had venom). At equilibrium the only venom predation is Venomoth->Locust Eater Eater, but venom also protects these species from the Brown Bear and the Booyahs.
Will a pure predator with no foraging adaptations survive to equilibrium?
True. Brown Bear is the only one, but with little predatory competition it thrived in three different biomes.
Not well enough to get more than one animal to survive, alas.
The one thing I did manage to improve my survival odds by doing was steering clear of the Tundra...even after the buff to Lichen (prior to which Tundra was mathematically impossible to survive) it seemed pretty likely that even a single non-trivial Tundra predator being submitted would inevitably wipe the whole region out. It looked like...rather a lot of people submitted distinctly non-trivial predators there.
When I was theorycrafting I thought armor was trash, but I have been proven very wrong. Armor is the cheapest way to be invincible, and every surviving species has either 0 or 10 armor.
I thought so too. I was surprised by how useful Armor was.
Resolutions to my pregame prediction elicitation thingies, which I unvirtuously forgot to vote in myself:
True. 25 species were credited as winners in at least one biome:
Armadillo v2, Desert Tortoise1, Desert Tortoise2, Rock Beetle, Sol Invictus, Super-Armor Fish, Soonbegon, Barnacle, Spanish Beard, Tilli, Seed Beetle, Mutant Two-Headed Speed Snail, Nuclear Waste, Forest Finch, Brown Bear, Trash Slime, Snark, Booyahs, Venomoth, Locust Eater Eater, Hopsplitter, mediocre 1-3-s, Venomous Snark, Cutiefly, Forest Tribble1
Soonbegon didn’t “survive to equilibrium” despite being called a winner, so I probably shouldn’t count it.
False. You could make it true by deciding to count species that won in multiple biomes once for each biome they won in, but I’m not going to do that.
False. Tundra has no creatures at equilibrium. Shore has no permanent residents, but it definitely looks like the other biomes supply it enough for it to always have creatures.
True. Three defenseless seed-eating species survived.
True. Booyahs just barely makes it: 2 for attack, 10 for speed, 6 for carrion, 2 for heat resistance, 0.1 base rate, total of 20.1. No other surviving species is that expensive. Soonbegon also costs 20.1.
True. When I was theorycrafting I thought armor was trash, but I have been proven very wrong. Armor is the cheapest way to be invincible, and every surviving species has either 0 or 10 armor.
True. Venomoth and Venomous Snark had venom and survived. (Soonbegon also had venom). At equilibrium the only venom predation is Venomoth->Locust Eater Eater, but venom also protects these species from the Brown Bear and the Booyahs.
True. Brown Bear is the only one, but with little predatory competition it thrived in three different biomes.
Here’s our Brier scores for our predictions:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qhuACrtD0esgCqz8rQvYcZOC0I1y1l66/edit#gid=225287990
The defenseless creature result really surprised most of us. Well done, aphyer, you knew what was up.
I’m giving myself credit for a much better score than that. ;)
Edit: as per elspood’s simulations, I am revoking all of my supposed credit.
Not well enough to get more than one animal to survive, alas.
The one thing I did manage to improve my survival odds by doing was steering clear of the Tundra...even after the buff to Lichen (prior to which Tundra was mathematically impossible to survive) it seemed pretty likely that even a single non-trivial Tundra predator being submitted would inevitably wipe the whole region out. It looked like...rather a lot of people submitted distinctly non-trivial predators there.
I think it did survive in the Benthic?
The graph in the benthic article only shows up to generation 1000. Soonbegon goes extinct in the river close to generation 9000.
Soonbegon shouldn’t be able to compete with the more efficient detritus-eating species in the benthic anyway.
I thought so too. I was surprised by how useful Armor was.