It helps to remember that the Hindenburg was more or less parked when it exploded… I think it was like 30 feet in the air? (I’m probably wrong about the number, but I don’t think I’m very wrong.) Most of the passengers basically jumped off. And, sure, a 30 foot drop is no walk in the park, but it’s not that surprising that most people survive it.
(Well, then “out of the sky” is kind of an exaggeration, since you wouldn’t normally consider yourself to be in the sky when on a balcony on the fourth floor.)
Well, unlike the balcony of a building, a floating blimp (even close to the ground) is floating, rather than resting on the ground, so I suppose one could make the argument. But yeah, I’m inclined to agree that wherever “the sky” is understood to be, and I accept that this is a social construct rather than a physical entity, it’s at least a hundred feet or so above ground
I’m guessing that even if you survive, your quality of life is going to take a hit. Accounting for this will probably bring our intuitive expectation of harm closer to the actual harm.
I would expect something like that chance. Being hit by a train will be very similar to landing on your side or back after falling 3 to 10 meters (I’m guessing most people hit by trains are at or near a train station, so the impacts will be relatively slow). So the fatality rate should be similar.
Of course, that prediction gives a fatality rate of only 5-20%, so I’m probably missing something.
Lightning strikes usually do not involve physical impacts—I think “falling from 3-10 meters and getting struck by lightning” would be worse. In addition, the length of the current flow depends on the high voltage system.
Subway ad: “146 people were hit by trains in 2011. 47 were killed.”
Guy on Subway: “That tells me getting hit by a train ain’t that dangerous.”
Nate Silver, on his Twitter feed @fivethirtyeight
This reminds me of how I felt when I learned that a third of the passengers of the Hindenburg survived. Went something like this, if I recall:
Actually, according to Wikipedia, only 35 out of the 97 people aboard were killed. Not enough to kill even 50% of them.
jaw drops
It helps to remember that the Hindenburg was more or less parked when it exploded… I think it was like 30 feet in the air? (I’m probably wrong about the number, but I don’t think I’m very wrong.) Most of the passengers basically jumped off. And, sure, a 30 foot drop is no walk in the park, but it’s not that surprising that most people survive it.
(Well, then “out of the sky” is kind of an exaggeration, since you wouldn’t normally consider yourself to be in the sky when on a balcony on the fourth floor.)
Well, unlike the balcony of a building, a floating blimp (even close to the ground) is floating, rather than resting on the ground, so I suppose one could make the argument. But yeah, I’m inclined to agree that wherever “the sky” is understood to be, and I accept that this is a social construct rather than a physical entity, it’s at least a hundred feet or so above ground
Wait, 32% probability of dying “ain’t that dangerous”? Are you f***ing kidding me?
If I expect to be hit by a train, I certainly don’t expect a ~68% survival chance. Not intuitively, anyways.
I’m guessing that even if you survive, your quality of life is going to take a hit. Accounting for this will probably bring our intuitive expectation of harm closer to the actual harm.
Hmmm, I can’t think of any way of figuring out what probability I would have guessed if I had to guess before reading that. Damn you, hindsight bias!
(Maybe you could spell out and rot-13 the second figure in the ad...)
I would expect something like that chance. Being hit by a train will be very similar to landing on your side or back after falling 3 to 10 meters (I’m guessing most people hit by trains are at or near a train station, so the impacts will be relatively slow). So the fatality rate should be similar.
Of course, that prediction gives a fatality rate of only 5-20%, so I’m probably missing something.
There’s the whole crushing and high voltage shock thing, depending on how you land.
Well, lightning strikes kill less than half the people they hit.
Lightning strikes usually do not involve physical impacts—I think “falling from 3-10 meters and getting struck by lightning” would be worse. In addition, the length of the current flow depends on the high voltage system.
This seems overwhelmingly likely.
I can’t help but think:
Subway ad: “146 people were hit by trains in 2011. 47 were killed.”
Guy at Subway: “What does that have to do with sandwiches?”