That there was murder is a given since that is the reason for the investigation and trial. The presence of Guede’s DNA and his own statements makes it plausible that he is guilty.
The OP has changed his estimates from 0.001 to 0.1, which I think is a lot more defensible. My main point remains, for him as well as you: why are you choosing priors by a different method for Guede and the others?
None of the things you mention are “material facts”. They’re reports from various sources of things that can be interpreted as material facts. Very importantly: the murder is by no means an axiom for anyone rational, any more than the untold trillions of other imaginable murders should be axiomatic. The investigation and trial are some evidence, but you seem to be taking them at face value for Guede and discounting it heavily for the other two, and I don’t think that’s justifiable.
Reports of DNA are evidence as well. What false-negative rate do you give such reports, that brings you from any reasonable prior (which is similar to the prior you use for the other two) to over 90% probability?
First question, how is Meredith’s murder not a fact? Are you saying we have to prove she was murdered? Maybe I should have said death rather than murder. Is that what you mean?
Second question, what do you mean by “taking them at face value...”
Third, what am discounting?
Fourth, what such reports are you asking about for the reports?
Fifth, what do you mean by the last sentence, particularly “reasonable prior”? Can you reword? I’m not sure how the word “prior” is used on this site…
It is a given because for the sake of the discussion, it has been established. It is the starting point. To go back further would be unnecessary. There is ample evidence that Meredith was murdered.
That there was a murder has been established. This is not in question due to the large quantity of evidence supporting it. The discussion is of the guilt, given the (established and known) fact of the murder. As for its usefulness, the evidence of the murder would reveal evidence of who did it, so it could be useful, but might be a moot point, since then we’re already on the topic of agency of guilt.
And let’s not forget that after he fled to Germany, Guede made a phone call using his Skype account and said Knox was not at the house that night (he didn’t say anything about Sollecito, has he had never even met him and didn’t know what he looked like). Even after police pressured Guede to put Knox at the house, he did not. Until weeks later, when he finally changed his story and said Knox was there and had argued with Kercher about money.
Plus, if you read Rudy’s journal, you will come across red signals all over the place. He wrote that his “hands were full of blood”, etc. He describes the scene as if he is in the midst of it, complete with wales (or statements, if your prefer, but it was dramatic) of guilt and remorse and recollections of his unstable childhood.
The only question is why didn’t the prosecution zero in on (all) the blaring red signals regarding Rudy, and rather become hyper-focused on inconsequential faint glimmers of signals that were actually his own “psychological noise”, ie reading into the situation (of Amanda and Raffaele) using inductive logic, rather than deducing from the evidence? He doesn’t have any of the same obsession about or engage in name-calling of Rudy, at all. Yet, look at the swamp related to Rudy. Something is amiss.
That there was murder is a given since that is the reason for the investigation and trial. The presence of Guede’s DNA and his own statements makes it plausible that he is guilty.
The OP has changed his estimates from 0.001 to 0.1, which I think is a lot more defensible. My main point remains, for him as well as you: why are you choosing priors by a different method for Guede and the others?
None of the things you mention are “material facts”. They’re reports from various sources of things that can be interpreted as material facts. Very importantly: the murder is by no means an axiom for anyone rational, any more than the untold trillions of other imaginable murders should be axiomatic. The investigation and trial are some evidence, but you seem to be taking them at face value for Guede and discounting it heavily for the other two, and I don’t think that’s justifiable.
Reports of DNA are evidence as well. What false-negative rate do you give such reports, that brings you from any reasonable prior (which is similar to the prior you use for the other two) to over 90% probability?
First question, how is Meredith’s murder not a fact? Are you saying we have to prove she was murdered? Maybe I should have said death rather than murder. Is that what you mean?
Second question, what do you mean by “taking them at face value...”
Third, what am discounting?
Fourth, what such reports are you asking about for the reports?
Fifth, what do you mean by the last sentence, particularly “reasonable prior”? Can you reword? I’m not sure how the word “prior” is used on this site…
Nothing is a given if the question is about what really happened.
It is a given because for the sake of the discussion, it has been established. It is the starting point. To go back further would be unnecessary. There is ample evidence that Meredith was murdered.
Of course, but it may be a useful exercise to understand the reason for the difference in strength of this particular argument compared to the others.
I’m not sure what you mean by “the reason for the difference in strength of this particular argument...” Which particular argument?
The argument that there was a murder at all.
That there was a murder has been established. This is not in question due to the large quantity of evidence supporting it. The discussion is of the guilt, given the (established and known) fact of the murder. As for its usefulness, the evidence of the murder would reveal evidence of who did it, so it could be useful, but might be a moot point, since then we’re already on the topic of agency of guilt.
Just curious how the two above 10:08:41 and 12:13:49 are seen as lacking. Trying to learn. Thank you...
And let’s not forget that after he fled to Germany, Guede made a phone call using his Skype account and said Knox was not at the house that night (he didn’t say anything about Sollecito, has he had never even met him and didn’t know what he looked like). Even after police pressured Guede to put Knox at the house, he did not. Until weeks later, when he finally changed his story and said Knox was there and had argued with Kercher about money.
Plus, if you read Rudy’s journal, you will come across red signals all over the place. He wrote that his “hands were full of blood”, etc. He describes the scene as if he is in the midst of it, complete with wales (or statements, if your prefer, but it was dramatic) of guilt and remorse and recollections of his unstable childhood.
The only question is why didn’t the prosecution zero in on (all) the blaring red signals regarding Rudy, and rather become hyper-focused on inconsequential faint glimmers of signals that were actually his own “psychological noise”, ie reading into the situation (of Amanda and Raffaele) using inductive logic, rather than deducing from the evidence? He doesn’t have any of the same obsession about or engage in name-calling of Rudy, at all. Yet, look at the swamp related to Rudy. Something is amiss.