it’s not about inflation expectations (which I think pretty well anchored), it’s about interest rates, which have risen substantially over this period and which has increased (and is expected to continue to increase) the cost of the US maintaining its debt (first two figures are from sites I’m not familiar with but the numbers seem right to me):
fwiw, I do broadly agree with your overall point that the dollar value of the debt is a bad statistic to use, but: - the 2020-2024 period was also a misleading example to point to because it was one where there the US position wrt its debt worsened by a lot even if it’s not apparent from the headline number - I was going to say that the most concerning part of the debt is that that deficits are projected to keep going up, but actually they’re projected to remain elevated but not keep rising? I have become marginally less concerned about the US debt over the course of writing this comment.
I am now wondering about the dynamics that happen if interest rates go way up a while before we see really high economic growth from AI, seems like it might lead to some weird dynamics here, but I’m not sure I think that’s likely and this is probably enough words for now.
IMO, it’s a bit unclear how this effects future expectations of inflation, but yeah, I agree.
it’s not about inflation expectations (which I think pretty well anchored), it’s about interest rates, which have risen substantially over this period and which has increased (and is expected to continue to increase) the cost of the US maintaining its debt (first two figures are from sites I’m not familiar with but the numbers seem right to me):
fwiw, I do broadly agree with your overall point that the dollar value of the debt is a bad statistic to use, but:
- the 2020-2024 period was also a misleading example to point to because it was one where there the US position wrt its debt worsened by a lot even if it’s not apparent from the headline number
- I was going to say that the most concerning part of the debt is that that deficits are projected to keep going up, but actually they’re projected to remain elevated but not keep rising? I have become marginally less concerned about the US debt over the course of writing this comment.
I am now wondering about the dynamics that happen if interest rates go way up a while before we see really high economic growth from AI, seems like it might lead to some weird dynamics here, but I’m not sure I think that’s likely and this is probably enough words for now.