I disagree strongly with SBF’s answer to Tyler Cowen’s Earth doubling problem, but I don’t know what to do once the easy escapes are closed off. I’m curious if someone does.
I don’t think that solves it. A bounded utility function would stop you from doing infinite doublings, but it still doesn’t prevent some finite number of doublings in the million-Earths case
That is, if the first round multiplies Earth a millionfold, then you just have to agree that a million Earths is at least twice as good as one Earth
Right. But just doing a finite number of million-fold-increase bets doesn’t seem so crazy to me. I think this is confounded a bit by the resources in the universe being mind-bogglingly large already, so it feels hard to imagine doubling the future utility. As a thought experiment, consider the choice between the following futures: (a) guarantee of 100 million years of flourishing human civilization, but no post-humans or leaving the solar system, (b) 50% chance extinction, 50% chance intergalactic colonization and transhumanism. To me option (b) feels more intuitively appealing.
I agree. I think this basically resolves the issue. Once you’ve added a bunch of caveats:
The bet is mind-bogglingly favorable. More like the million-to-one, and less like the 51% doubling
The bet reflects the preferences of most of the world. It’s not a unilateral action
You’re very confident that the results will actually happen (we have good reason to believe that the new Earths will definitely be created)
Then it’s actually fine to take the bet. At that point, our natural aversion is based on our inability to comprehend the vast scale of a million Earths. I still want to say no, but I’d probably be a yes at reflective equilibrium
Have a bounded utility function?
I don’t think that solves it. A bounded utility function would stop you from doing infinite doublings, but it still doesn’t prevent some finite number of doublings in the million-Earths case
That is, if the first round multiplies Earth a millionfold, then you just have to agree that a million Earths is at least twice as good as one Earth
Right. But just doing a finite number of million-fold-increase bets doesn’t seem so crazy to me. I think this is confounded a bit by the resources in the universe being mind-bogglingly large already, so it feels hard to imagine doubling the future utility. As a thought experiment, consider the choice between the following futures: (a) guarantee of 100 million years of flourishing human civilization, but no post-humans or leaving the solar system, (b) 50% chance extinction, 50% chance intergalactic colonization and transhumanism. To me option (b) feels more intuitively appealing.
I agree. I think this basically resolves the issue. Once you’ve added a bunch of caveats:
The bet is mind-bogglingly favorable. More like the million-to-one, and less like the 51% doubling
The bet reflects the preferences of most of the world. It’s not a unilateral action
You’re very confident that the results will actually happen (we have good reason to believe that the new Earths will definitely be created)
Then it’s actually fine to take the bet. At that point, our natural aversion is based on our inability to comprehend the vast scale of a million Earths. I still want to say no, but I’d probably be a yes at reflective equilibrium
Therefore… there’s not much of a dilemma anymore